Way back at the beginning of the coronavirus crisis, before “social distancing” was a part of the lexicon, when “flattening the curve” was something opposing teams did to Baltimore Orioles pitching, prior to any executive orders from Gov. Larry Hogan, I read some articles about various responses to the Spanish flu outbreak that are especially relevant today.
One described how several East Coast cities such as Philadelphia were late to quarantine and paid the price with a steep death toll. It described how St. Louis was quick to quarantine, shutting down schools early and leaving them closed, and how it wasn’t hit nearly as hard. And it described how Denver shut down schools relatively early, but then opened them back up too early, by history’s standards, and was hit with a second wave that wound up making Denver’s death rate some 50% higher than New York’s.
This is the key question we’re facing now, of course. When do we do it? When do we try to return to “normal?" When do we let all businesses reopen? When do we send kids back to school?
As difficult as this dilemma is, it shouldn’t be turning us against each other along some sort of ideological fault line. To scour social media is to believe that one side cares far more about a balance sheet or bank account than people’s lives while the other side is intent on using this situation to overthrow our way of life and restart with a socialist/communist model. And, somehow, it’s mostly the media’s fault.
The drumbeat for reopening the economy got much louder over the past week, and that shouldn’t come as a surprise. Each day it gets harder on all of us.
And, statistically speaking, a Marylander is far more likely to know someone left unemployed or unable to pay the rent or mortgage than someone who has died of or been hospitalized with the coronavirus.
That doesn’t necessarily mean the measures taken were an overreaction. In fact, it’s more likely to mean stay-at-home orders and closing schools and businesses are working. All one has to do is look at elder care facilities to see what can happen when a community of people in close proximity is exposed to this highly contagious disease. “Wildfire” is the word Hogan used and it’s appropriate.
Has the government made missteps at the local, state and federal level? Of course. It’s awfully hard for people in the private sector, suddenly separated from their jobs and paychecks through no fault of their own, to look at city, state and federal workers being paid to stay home, and in many cases being paid more handsomely than ever to do their work. And it’s hard to understand how certain businesses are deemed essential — yes, conspiracy theorists, it is true that liquor stores sell products that are very heavily taxed — while others are forced to shutter.
Truth is, everyone wants the same thing. We want our family and friends, particularly those most vulnerable, to be safe from this. And we want to be able to resume going to restaurants and bars and golf courses and movie theaters and sporting events and buying the nonessential items that make life worth living and being able to approach people on the street without fear of what we might catch.
We all want industry to survive and thrive. But we want the same for the elderly and for the young but compromised and for medical professionals.
When to lift stay-at-home and travel restrictions, when to reopen schools and businesses, these are the most difficult decisions the president, the nation’s governors, local elected officials will ever have to make.
It’s important to recognize it will never be soon enough to save everyone or every business from financial ruin. Unemployment and foreclosures will be higher and retail options will be fewer.
It also will never be late enough to ensure that everyone is 100% safe. Long-term care facilities will forever be vulnerable and there will absolutely be outbreaks in schools.
The timing everywhere will be absolutely critical, just as it was in Philadelphia and St. Louis and Denver a century ago.
We can only hope elected officials — consulting with medical health experts, using the best scientific data, and also getting plenty of input from economists and social scientists — will make the best possible decisions, putting the well-being of our municipalities, our states, our nation, our people and our economy ahead of political ambition.
And, maybe, just maybe, keep in mind that going to war on Facebook with someone whose opinion on the “when” doesn’t match yours isn’t helping anything.
Bob Blubaugh is the editor of the Carroll County Times. His column appears Sundays. Email him at bob.blubaugh@carrollcountytimes.com.