Baseball experts and fans alike seem to understand what needs to go right in the second half if the Orioles plan on contending for a playoff spot.
Quite simply, it comes down to the guys who throw the ball.
Baltimore surprised many around the majors by breaking out to a 27-14 start backed by a bevy of quality arms. On May 19, following a victory in Washington, the Orioles found themselves on a five-game winning streak and two games ahead of their AL East rivals in the standings.
Fast forward to last Sunday's loss in Los Angeles, which gave the Birds a 45-40 record going into the All-Star break, and the club was seven games behind the Yankees in the division.
Those arms are either on the mend, in the minors or mired in inconsistency at the moment.
If the season ended before tonight's home game against Detroit, the Orioles would be back in LA taking on the Angels in a one-game playoff to determine the wild-card.
But the season doesn't end today. The second half begins. And the Orioles already have an idea of what they need to improve on if they want to be relevant in late September.
"Pitch," said closer Jim Johnson, one of three Orioles in the All-Star Game and the majors' leader in saves with 26. "That's where it starts, pitching. We make the pitches, we know our offense can score some runs. That's pretty much the key to us."
The team's combined ERA of 4.05 is ninth-best in the AL, but the starters' combined ERA, 4.77, is 11th in the league. And while Johnson says his offensive teammates can put up enough runs to win, that hasn't been the case of late.
The Orioles have scored 351 runs, fourth fewest in the league, and their .240 team batting average is the AL's fourth lowest clip.
They're 18-26 since that May 19 win over the Nationals, and the Orioles have been held to two runs or fewer 19 times, including six shutouts, in that span.
But Baltimore's bats could be waking up, and getting a boost, with the return of Nick Markakis.
The Orioles' right fielder was activated from the disabled list Monday night after missing more than a month with a right wrist injury. Markakis had surgery to remove a piece of broken hamate bone.
Markakis was batting .256 with eight home runs and 26 RBIs - still sixth-best on the club - in 50 games.
Designated hitter Jim Thome, acquired June 30 in a trade with Philadelphia, might be coming around after a slow start. Corner infielder Wilson Betemit had a hot bat at the end of the June and had an 11-game hitting streak going at one point.
Center fielder Adam Jones, another Orioles All-Star, has cooled a bit after his torrid start to the season but is still the team's catalyst on offense.
Scoring likely will increase, but it's obvious the Orioles need to shore up their pitching problems to stay in any kind of playoff chase.
The second half begins tonight with Jason Hammel (8-5, 3.47 ERA) scheduled for the start, but with three-fifths of the team's Opening Day rotation in the minor leagues (Jake Arrieta, Tommy Hunter, Brian Matusz) fans can expect to see some new faces on the mound.
Chris Tillman should be back with the Orioles after an impressive two-hit performance July 4 in Seattle. Miguel Gonzalez is also set to start again in the next week. He started July 6 against the Angels and hurled seven innings while allowing one run and striking out six in a 3-2 win.
Perhaps Zach Britton makes his season debut in the near future. He's been pitching for Class-AAA Norfolk and had a strong outing July 8 with eight innings in a victory, raising his record to 3-1 with a 4.87 ERA for the Tides.
Britton, who went 11-11 with a 4.61 ERA for the Orioles in 2011, hasn't pitched this year because of shoulder discomfort. He started making extended spring training appearances in early June.
If and when the likes of Arrieta, Hunter and Matusz return to Baltimore, and if Hammel and Wei-Yin Chen (7-5, 3.93) can stay sharp, the pitching staff could be olstered for a second-half run.
"I think there's a lot of unfinished business," Johnson said. "We're showing that we can compete. It's a matter of finishing what we started. We started out really strong and we've gone through a little bit of adversity through the later part of the first half. But I don't think we're demoralized.
"I think it's more of the fact that we know what we got ourselves into. Guys can look at it that way and come ready for it for the second half."
- Major League Baseball
- Baseball
- Baltimore Orioles
- Jim Johnson
- Nick Markakis
- Los Angeles Angels
- Zach Britton
- Brian Matusz
- Jake Arrieta
- Jason Hammel
- Tommy Hunter
- Washington Nationals
- Spring Training
- Major League Baseball All-Star Game
- American League East
- New York Yankees
- Wilson Betemit
- Miguel Gonzalez
- Jim Thome