SILVER RUN - How does China affect a farmer in Carroll County?
Lawrence Meeks can tell you, with the help of a computer program he uses to track grain prices.
Long gone are the days when Meeks, who will be 67 next week, would be on the phone often and stack four-foot tall piles of The Wall Street Journal to determine the price of his crops.
Using his DTN/The Progressive Farmer software on his laptop, he can check the prices posted by the Chicago Board of Trade, and the basis prices, or local prices, being charged by those who might want to buy bushels of his corn, soybeans and wheat - the three crops that make up most of his business. He can also view news from across the world that might impact the price of his crops, receive weather forecasts, chat with other farmers about the market and watch a daily comment with analysis about how the market fared on a particular day.
The tool helps Meeks, of Silver Run, to make sense of the complex commodities market, in which he and other farmers in Carroll County are heavily involved. He needs to know the information quickly, he said, because if prices change drastically, that can affect whether he wants to sell his crops or continue to observe the market to wait for a better price.
"There is an advantage to it," Meeks said of the technology he uses. "As time goes on, more people will move into this information technology."
Such tools are becoming more common for farmers who want quick information, said Chris Whittinghill, director of sales for DTN/The Progressive Farmer, an industry leader in devices that help farmers track commodity prices. He said such information has become more important than ever, as the market has grown more volatile over the years he has observed it.
"Hundreds of things change the market, but we try to simplify it," he said, noting that there are 100 contributors worldwide that provide market information for the standard computer package that Meeks uses.
Premium users of the product can get even more information on local input prices, such as diesel fuel and fertilizer prices, and get more detailed weather forecasts, complete with GPS mapping that pinpoints where rain will fall, and where it will be dry. Farmers can get the standard package, like Meeks has, which provides grain price information at an approximate 10-minute delay, or they can pay to get updates in real time, Whittinghill said.
The typical premium package costs about $1,000 per year, while the standard package costs about $600 per year, Whittinghill said.
The computer package Meeks has breaks news about the market more quickly than in the past, he said, noting that he checks it for an hour each day to stay up-to-date. He said his wife, Jeanie, sometimes checks the market and calls him on his cell phone or over a two-way radio when he is working in the field if major news is breaking.
On the week of July 22, Meeks saw the price of soybeans drop on Chicago Board of Trade by $1.355 for August, which he said was in part due to a rumor that the Chinese government was going to release 3 million metric tons of soybean reserves into its domestic market. He learned about the news and the price drop through his DTN service, he said.
Analysts agreed the rumors in part affected soybean prices that week. Meeks said in one day, the price of soybeans dropped roughly 70 cents for August futures.
"That affects me when the price of my beans are 70 cents less," he said.
Some analysts said to sell that day, while others said to wait. Meeks said he decided not to sell and to wait, hopefully, for the price to rise.
How useful is the new technology?
Meeks said the older model DTN he used before the computer software required a satellite dish that, when tuned to the correct coordinates, would produce grain prices on a monitor. He said the new computer software is much more interactive.
On July 30, he participated in an informal poll with others through his DTN service. The poll asked when the farm bill might be passed in Washington. "When pigs fly," was the most popular answer, which made Meeks chuckle.
But some farmers say that although the paid computer services that DTN/The Progressive Farmer offer can be helpful, they can get by without it. They also noted free programs that provide a lot of the same information.
Ed Dutterer, who owns a farm in Frizzellburg, said that he uses the older version of the DTN that requires a satellite dish. He said he has never been interested in using a computer to track prices.
"I don't touch the computer," he said. " I don't know why, I just never do that."
Farmers use such technology at varying degrees, said Mark Martin, county executive director for the U.S. Department of Agriculture Farm Service Agency. He said some farmers, like Dutterer, don't use the new technology but are still savvy farmers.
"It's sort of all over the place at different degrees of how they do it," Martin said. "There are some that have it right on their cell phone that rings when it comes to the price they want to sell at, where they are updated constantly. Other guys are still doing the coffee shop talk, where they are talking about grain prices over coffee in the morning."
Gary Dell, a farmer at Dell Brother Inc. farm in Westminster, who sells and buys corn and soybeans, said that he checks the price of grains on his iPhone using the app of a free service, AgWeb, while he is handling work at the farm. AgWeb publishes news and updates about prices and the grain market in general, which he said is enough for him. He also has the old satellite version of the DTN at his office on one portion of his family-owned farm, although he said being able to check his iPhone for updates has helped him avoid having to come into the office constantly.
"The iPhone makes my life way easier," Dell said.
Dell said he has had to change his price for crop purchases based on a drop in the market.
"Most guys know the price has every chance to change," he said. "You can call me at 7 [a.m.], and by noon, it could be different."
Whittinghill said that many farmers can do well by setting a profit goal they are comfortable with and minimizing risk. He said the computerized model of his product has a profit calculator that makes it easy for farmers to know what price they need to sell at to make a profit.
He acknowledged the DTN on the computer may have too much information to follow at any given time.
"Realistically, do I need to follow why things are happening in South America?" Whittinghill asked. "Maybe, but if you are comfortable with the goal you set, it shortens the amount of things you need to look for and monitor."
Dell said farmers in the commodities market need to take responsibility for the decisions they make with their crops. He said grain farmers should not blame the advice of any particular analyst for a bad move they make.
"You can ask anyone what their opinion is, but at the end of the day, it is your decision," Dell said. "I think a lot of people don't take responsibility for a lot of things in this world. People like to point at people and blame. I don't think that's right."
Whittinghill said his company rolled out a new product this week that will essentially be a personalized weather station for an individual location. The product will give real-time weather information on the location, which he said is an industry first. It will also provide a historical log of weather, and, for more high-end users, it will track leaf wetness, soil moisture and temperature, and evapotranspiration, the loss of water from a plant through evaporation and transpiration.
Martin said that although not all farmers in the county have embraced new technology, many are starting to, using high-tech sprayers and seeders. He said farming technology is something that will continue to grow.
"I haven't seen an explosion," Martin said. "I just see certain individual farmers latching onto it."
