5 p.m. Tuesday:
Cleanup continues from Hurricane Sandy and progress is being made in power restoration efforts. There are approximately 138,000 BGE customers in the dark. The utility has already restored service to nearly 200,000 customers.
The weather has improved enough that towns are all holding Trick-or-Treating as scheduled Wednesday night in Carroll County, so yay for that. Carroll County Public Schools will be open Wednesday after being closed Monday and Tuesday.
This seems like as good a time as any to break down the National Weather Service's forecast for Sandy, chronicle what happened and do a bit of self-evaluation as a reporter.
Let's start with my personal critique. When discussing the weather, reporters have to take great care in not alarming or scaring readers. It's fairly easy to do. I avoided the traditional "scare" words like "catastrophic" and I actually did not use several quotes from forecasters and emergency planners that I deemed to be too over-the top.
When forecasters started warning about Sandy in mid-week, I started posting, trying to keep level-headed about such an incredible storm in the offing.
After the National Weather Service's dire forecast Monday morning, I probably sounded the alarm bells more than I should have, but when you see a forecast for 8-12 inches of rain and hurricane-force gusts this far inland, well, it's alarming. So I apologize for that, and in the future I am going to take great care in every word I type via social networking and the blog.
But how about that forecast? The long-range forecast was incredibly accurate, a huge success story for such a complicated, unusual, powerful storm taking an unprecedented track. The short-term forecast from the National Weather Service let us down, and here's my Sandy forecasting recap:
The traditionally unreliable long-range weather models did their job.
Superstorm Sandy made landfall in Southern New Jersey Monday, exactly where so many of models predicted and near the center of the forecast cone put out by the National Hurricane Center.
The European Centre for Medium Range Forecasting model warned of Sandy's formation and push towards the coast several days ahead of time, a noteworthy long-term forecasting success.
Sandy was the monstrous coastal storm forecasters projected, causing widespread destruction along the Jersey Shore in particular, but it didn't quite deliver on dire forecasts put out by the National Weather Service's Baltimore-Washington forecast office in the hours leading up to the storm.
Here's a look at the forecast, what actually happened and why the effects were not nearly as significant as expected in Central Maryland.
Rain
The forecast: 8-12 inches of rain were forecast in Central Maryland
What actually happened: A few rain totals did reach that threshold, including Parkville in Baltimore County (8.38 inches). But most storm totals were in the 5-7 inch range, including 6.13 inches in Manchester and 5.95 inches in Westminster.
Why the difference: Sandy made landfall faster than expected and did not linger. It pushed ashore at 28 mph, far faster than models expected.
Winds
Forecast: Sustained tropical force winds throughout Monday, Monday night and Tuesday with gusts up to 80 mph for Central Maryland, including Carroll County.
What happened: Winds were certainly sustained at tropical storm force at various points throughout Monday and Monday night, but peak wind gusts in central Maryland did not quite reach the hurricane strength threshold. Top gusts included a 68 mph gust at Dundalk in Baltimore County, a 66 mph gust in Ballenger Creek in Frederick County and a 60 mph gust near BWI Airport in Anne Arundel County. No wind gusts from Carroll County were made available by the National Weather Service.
Why the difference: Hurricane Sandy quickly lost its tropical characteristics and the storm's center was quickly ripped apart after landfall. The center of tropical systems is where the strongest wind gusts are traditionally located. Plus, the storm passed to the north of Carroll County. The strongest winds were located, and recorded, just north of landfall.
1:30 p.m. Tuesday: Usually, the Winters Mill High School digital sign at the school's front entrance features upcoming events taking place in the school.
Not Tuesday.
The sign said "emergency shelter here" in bright red letters. It was one of two emergency shelters available to anyone - human or pet - that needed it.
Just 16 people used the shelter overnight Monday as Superstorm Sandy roared ashore, director Frank Valenti said. By around noon Tuesday, roughly 10 Carroll residents were utilizing the facility. The county's second shelter, located at Century High School in Eldersburg, was in the process of being closed down Tuesday. The Winters Mill site was expected to remain open through the afternoon. But the plan is to close the shelter so classes can resume Wednesday.
The school's front office served as the headquarters for shelter staffers. The Carroll County Department of Human Resources, the Sheriff's Department, the Humane Society of Carroll County, the American Red Cross and more were represented there.
Cots were set up in the school's gyms. The Winters Mill shelter was ready to accommodate 150-200 people.
"I think the fact that people were prepared and electricity is starting to get restored helped," Valenti said.
The National Weather Service warned communication disruptions were possible if the hurricane force gusts materialized. That never happened, but the Carroll County Amateur Radio Club was ready just in case. Two radio operators were stationed at Carroll County's Emergency Operations Center.
Radio operator John Hoge was positioned in the attendance office with a car battery, antenna and radio ready to provide communications. He was in regular contact with the Emergency Operations Center.
"We're here to help," he said.
10 a.m. Tuesday: Well, this is much better.
The winds have subsided drastically and the most severe portion of Sandy has past, according to the National Weather Service.
Wind and rain is expected to subside during the day Tuesday. Flooding is ongoing. A flood warning is still in effect. The Potomac River is expected to undergo significant flooding today and tomorrow as the crest works downstream.
We were spared the most severe effects of Sandy for three main reasons: The storm pushed ashore and moved out of the area quicker than forecast. We were on the southern side of the storm, and the most powerful winds were north of landfall. Dry air worked its way into the center of the storm as it passed through the area, limiting rain totals. So in a lot of ways, we got really lucky.
Even so, several meteorological records were broken. It was the rainiest Oct. 29 on record at many National Weather Service positions. Among the impressive rain totals: Pimlico (6.44 inches), Catonsville (6.24 inches), Savage (6.59 inches), Gaither (6.82 inches) and Westminster (4.81 inches), according to the National Weather Service.
The recorded central pressure of 964.4 millibars is the lowest pressure recorded in Baltimore since at least 1930, according to the National Weather Service.
BGE is already making progress with restoring electricity. Currently, 188,000 customers are without electricity, including 3,036 in Carroll County. There are 1,469 Potomac Edison customers without electricity in Carroll County.
The Carroll County Emergency Operations Center is still up and operational today.
There are just a few roads in the county closed due to flooding. You can access this list by following this link.
12:30 a.m. Tuesday: Hurricane Sandy is no longer.
It is now, simply, Superstorm Sandy.
The National Hurricane Center decided Sandy lost most of its tropical characteristics after it made landfall in Southern New Jersey. Sandy is now pushing west. The National Weather Service is expecting an extended period of strong winds and more moderate to heavy rain overnight, according to their 11 a.m. update. Gusts of at least 35-50 mph are expected overnight.
Conditions should gradually improve today, although Central Maryland is still likely to be dealing with rain and wind, particularly this morning.
Wind gusts Monday and Monday night were impressive and exactly as forecast. The state's top gusts: 79 mph at Thomas Point, 76 mph at Laytonsville, 74 mph at Point Lookout, 71 mph at Bishops Head and 60 mph at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
Significant flooding is occurring throughout the region, according to the National Weather Service. That is likely to continue today.
Power outages are a major problem statewide, as expected. More than 211,000 BGE customers were without electricity at just after midnight. That includes 4,500 customers in Carroll County. Potomac Edison is also dealing with widespread outages, including 1,310 in Carroll County and nearly 32,000 customers in Frederick County.
We received at least three reports of trees falling on houses that we plan to investigate in the morning.
All kinds of records were broken by Sandy, including the lowest pressure reading ever recorded in Atlantic City. This was the rainiest Oct. 29 on record in many locales in the Mid-Atlantic, according to the National Weather Service.
All public schools in the state are once again closed today.
6:30 p.m. Monday: Sandy has made landfall and it's headed our way.
The sun has set, winds are howling and rain is swirling. The most severe weather we'll see with Sandy is happening right now and will continue through dawn Tuesday, according to the National Weather Service.
There will be an increase in damage from downed trees and power lines along with an increase in flooding as the night wears on. Winds will continue to increase in intensity through the Tuesday pre-dawn hours.
Powerful wind gusts have spread inland. A 60 mph wind gust was recorded at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore, for example.
Power outages are a major issue. BGE is reporting 83,000 customers are in the dark with 876 of those in Carroll County. Remember: BGE spokeswoman Rachael Lighty said Friday that crews will not ascend in bucket trucks when wind speeds are a sustained 25 mph. So it may be awhile before power is restored.
5:30 p.m. Monday: Sandy is expected to make landfall in the next hour or so near Cape May, N.J. A powerful rain band just pushed through Carroll. You can hear the wind howling outside my Westminster office.
Our weather will worsen as the center of Sandy approaches. The forecast calls for the worst weather to happen overnight.
BGE is now reporting 50,000 customers without power. Approximately 300 of those are in Carroll. It appears Baltimore and Harford Counties have been hit particularly hard.
4:30 p.m. Monday: A few-quick pieces of information as Sandy nears the shore.
Power outages are starting to become a problem. BGE is reporting 34,761 customers are without electricity, 372 of which are in Carroll. For whatever reason, the majority of the customers without electricity are in Northern Baltimore County. You can keep abreast of the map by following this link.
I copy-and-pasted this information verbatim from the latest BGE press release: "Due to the widespread outages and damage caused by Hurricane Sandy, BGE will not be able to provide individual estimated restoration times like it does with normal storms. BGE anticipates that an estimated time for restoration of the entire system will not be available until damage assessments are complete and the company works through the first phases of the restoration process to repair the electric system backbone and public safety sites."
The State Highway Administration and Maryland State Police are strongly encouraging people to avoid traveling during the height of the storm, which will be tonight. Until further notice, the speed limit on state roads and Interstate Highways has been reduced to 45 mph.
3 p.m. Monday: Everything that was closed today? Closed Tuesday. The list includes Carroll County Public Schools, Carroll County Government, courts, Northern Landfill, Carroll County Public Libraries, Carroll Community College, CATS. There will be no early voting.
Sandy is expected to make landfall around 6 p.m. this evening, probably in Southern New Jersey. Our worst weather will be when it's dark.
Check out Instacane.com. Folks are uploading photos of their hurricane experiences.
1 p.m. Monday: Lots of Sandy-related updates. Absolutely none of them are good.
Let's start with the National Hurricane Center's latest advisory. Sandy continues to strengthen as it makes its approach to the Mid-Atlantic. Landfall is expected along the southern New Jersey coastline overnight. Top winds are at 90 mph. The central pressure has plummeted to 943 millibars. That's a similar pressure to what Hurricane Hugo had when it made landfall in 1989 near Charleston, S.C.
With the storm strengthening and the forecast calling for Sandy to pass either directly over, or near, Central Maryland, the National Weather Service's Baltimore-Washington forecast office has ramped up the forecast.
We can now expect 8-12 inches of rain in Central Maryland, sustained winds of 30-50 mph with gusts of 70 and possibly 80 mph as the center of the storm nears the area. The worst winds are expected between 6 p.m. tonight and 6 a.m. Tuesday. It will be a sleepless night for many as the wind roars loader than it has in our region in the last century.
Major flooding is expected. The Potomac River will likely start flooding Tuesday night and continue through the end of the week. The Monocacy River is forecast to be in major flood through early Thursday. The flood levels forecast have not been seen in our area since Hurricane Agnes blew through in 1972. For more details, follow this great link right here.
The coast will be battered. Destruction is already taking place. The Ocean City fishing pier is gone. Atlantic City, which is going to be hit extremely hard, is flooded.
Longtime followers of my Facebook page at http://www.facebook.com/weatherornotmd will tell you that I don't often sound the alarm bells. I'm sounding them now. Know where your closest shelter is. In Carroll County, the shelters are at Winters Mill and Century High Schools. Have a bag packed in case you must evacuate your home, particularly if you live in a flood-prone area. Have insurance numbers at the ready. Generally plan on being without power for 72-96 hours or longer.
This is as bad as it gets, folks.
8:30 a.m. Monday: Hurricane Sandy strengthened overnight and is now making its approach to the Jersey Shore.
Sandy now has maximum sustained winds of 85 mph and a central pressure of 948 mb. Sandy is projected to strengthen a bit more, and if that happens, it would push ashore with a central pressure at, or near, what Hurricane Hugo (944 mb) had when it made landfall in Isle of Palms, S.C., in 1989.
The National Weather Service's Baltimore-Washington forecast office worsened its forecast a bit for the area. Central Maryland can now expect 6-10 inches of rain and near hurricane force wind gusts are possible, if not likely, everywhere from Hagerstown to Bel Air.
The fine folks at Foot's Forecast are expecting winds to increase to 40 mph by 6 p.m.., become sustained at 40-60 mph between 6 and 9 p.m. and occasional hurricane force gusts from 9 p.m.-12 a.m. Travel is not a good idea today but it's a horrible one once the sun sets tonight.
The NWS 5 a.m. advisory warned "dangerous" flooding is now expected. Significant tree damage is also expected. A flood warning is in effect for Baltimore and Harford Counties. They have been dealing with a torrential rain band this morning. The heavy rain is pushing to the west and will mean Carroll County will deal with a really soggy morning. The winds aren't bad yet and only a few hundred BGE customers are without power in the region as of 8 a.m. But the winds will worsen this afternoon and will howl through the night into Tuesday morning.
As you might expect, lots of closures today: Every county public schools system in the state cancelled classes. So did McDaniel and Carroll Community College. The Carroll County Government is closed, including Northern Landfill. Courts are closed. Mass transit in Baltimore and Washington is shut down.
Last night, Gov. Martin O'Malley issued a stern warning similar to what he's said before significant winter storms.
"We are urging all citizens to hunker down at home and stay off the roads [Monday]," he said.
A reminder. You can follow the storm at http://www.facebook.com/weatherornotmd.
8:30 p.m. Sunday: Gov. Martin O'Malley held a brief press conference tonight.
The key points:
State and federal government nonessential personnel get the day off tomorrow.
Both the D.C. Metro and Baltimore mass transit will not be operating tomorrow.
He wants everyone to hunker down, stay at home and stay off the roads. It's a very similar proclamation to what he said before those three pesky blizzards we had in the winter of 2009-10.
6 p.m. Sunday: Here's a look at what to expect as Hurricane Sandy bears down on the East Coast. Note the extended period of blustery winds:
Monday
Precipitation: Rain. Heavy at times. 2-3 inches of rain possible.
Winds: Northerly winds sustained at 28-38 mph, with gusts as high as 65 mph
Temperatures: A high of 49 is expected.
Tonight
Precipitation: Rain. Heavy at times. 2-3 inches of rain possible.
Winds: Northerly winds sustained at 41-43 mph, with gusts as high as 65 mph
Temperatures: Temperatures tumble into the lower 40s.
Tuesday
Precipitation: Showers. 1-2 inches of rain possible.
Winds: Winds shift to westerly at 44-48 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph.
Temperatures: Unseasonably cold with a high near 45.
Tuesday night
Precipitation: A 90 percent chance of showers. New precipitation amounts between .1-.25 an inch possible
Winds: Winds shift to the southwest at 24-33 mph with gusts as high as 50 mph.
Temperatures: Low around 37 degrees.
Source: National Weather Service
2 p.m. Sunday: Several updates from the Carroll County Office of Public Safety:
The Carroll County Emergency Operations Center is up and operational as of 11 a.m. Sunday. It will be there for you through the duration of the storm. To access information and make non-emergency requests, call 888-5-GET-EOC.
Carroll County will open two emergency shelters at 7 p.m. Sunday at Winters Mill High School (560 Gorsuch Road, Westminster) and Century High School (355 Ronsdale Road, Eldersburg), according to a Carroll County Government news release. Cots, blankets and food will be available at the shelters.
Early voting is cancelled for Monday. So don't try to cast a ballot.
Carroll County Public Schools are making a decision in a few minutes. I would assume they would be closed. Howard and Baltimore County Public Schools are closed Monday. So are Baltimore City Schools.
The SHA is asking folks to avoid U.S. 50 near the Eastern Shore. Mandatory evacuations taking place in some portions of Ocean City.
9:30 a.m. Sunday: Several quick- hitter thoughts for you about Sandy:
1. Sandy rapidly strengthened this morning. The storm's central pressure dropped from 960 to 951 millibars this morning. That's considered rapid strengthening. Somehow, Sandy is still a minimal hurricane with winds of 75 mph. It is expected to lose its tropical characteristics eventually, but that really is irrelevant. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles from its center. Tropical-storm force winds extend a stunning 520 miles from the center.
2. Currently, the National Hurricane Center is expecting the center of Sandy to push ashore in Southern or Central New Jersey. That's horrible news for Long Island and New York City and pretty much a worst-case scenario for them if it happens. But there is still variance in the track. It could come ashore anywhere from southern Maryland to Long Island.
3. Our weather is going to stink regardless so don't get caught up in changes in track. Just do yourself a favor, accept that this is going to be a horrible 48 hours of weather starting Sunday night and finalize preparations. Be ready to be without power for 96 hours. It's going to happen to hundreds of thousands of Marylanders according to BGE. It will be cold in your house if you lose electricity. Temperatures will only be in the 40s Monday through Wednesday. Have extra blankets at the ready.
4. Speaking of Central Maryland's weather, the National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch and a High Wind Warning for our area. The National Weather Service is expecting 5 to 9 inches of rain to fall during this storm. That could cause significant flooding of creeks and rivers, obviously. The relentless winds are going to be a major story. Flooding could last through Friday on rivers in the Northern Potomac basin. We can expect wind gusts of more than 45 mph by 8 a.m. Monday and up to 60 mph Monday afternoon into Tuesday, per the National Weather Service. In my opinion, those gusts could be worse if Sandy comes inland further south than projected. Either way, numerous trees and power lines will likely be downed by this storm.
5. Today isn't going to be too bad. Rain is in the forecast, mostly after 2 p.m., but the real heavy stuff likely won't get here until Sunday night.
6. I spoke with several Carroll County government staffers Friday. The plan was to open an emergency ops center today. The Carroll County Office of Public Safety is closely tracking the storm. I was assured Friday that they will open up shelters if necessary.
7. I actually ran into State Highway Administration spokesman Charlie Gischlar yesterday. We both ran the Headless Horseman 5k at Frederick High School. He's ready to give frequent updates, which is nice because I said we would be calling frequently.
12:30 a.m. Saturday: First off, Sandy has weakened somewhat, with peak winds of just 75 mph. It's likely that Sandy will become a tropical storm later Saturday, but it's expected to morph into one a powerhouse cyclone before making landfall.
Forecasters are starting to notice Sandy is losing some of its tropical characteristics. The most telling sign is the storm's wind field is expanding. Tropical storm force winds extend a staggering 415 miles from Sandy's center.
Forecasters have warned that those near the center of circulation aren't the only ones likely to feel Sandy's affects, and that's why.
The forecast track is going to be critical here, and it continues to be rather wide in scope. Currently, the National Hurricane Center is projecting a landfall along the Delaware or New Jersey shores. The further north this landfall winds up being, the better off we'll be in Central Maryland. But we're still looking at a serious rain, wind and flooding issue no matter what.
And for those dealing with prolonged power outages, it will be cold. Temperatures hover in the 40s for highs through at least Thursday, according to the National Weather Service. Temperatures will be in the upper 30s at night.
It's odd to think that possibly our coldest stretch of weather so far this season will coincide with the arrival of a cyclone with tropical origins.
The Weather Channel's Jim Cantore Tweeted tonight that he's headed for New York City. He usually goes where the most extreme weather is likely to be, so there you have it.
6:30 p.m. Friday: We're back in Weather or Not Alert Mode for the first time in 2012. Long-time readers will remember that we've used this format before for the three crippling winter storms of 2010-11 and Hurricane Irene's pass east of the area last August.
Well, we're bringing the format back because Hurricane Sandy, or the Frankenstorm, or whatever you want to call the looming monster system about to affect our area, definitely warrants it.
I'll start with the basics: Sandy is expected to make landfall somewhere between Long Island, N.Y., and Cape Hatteras, N.C. Heavy rain is expected to overspread our area Sunday night through at least Tuesday afternoon. Some forecasts are calling for 5-to-10 inches of rain and tropical storm force wind gusts of 39 mph or greater. It's going to be an intense storm with wide-ranging consequences for our area, regardless of where it makes landfall.
The worst-case scenario would be a storm that makes a landfall near Ocean City or along the Virginia shore and pushes west. But we'll be dealing with lots of wind and rain if Sandy pushes ashore somewhere along the Delaware-New Jersey coast, which is the favored outcome of most computer models.
As a result, the Carroll County Office of Emergency Management is asking residents to take the following precautions:
The Carroll County Office of Emergency Management is encouraging residents to take preparedness steps ahead of a likely strike from Hurricane Sandy and possible extended power outages.
Have supplies on hand
Flashlights with extra batteries, a battery-operated weather radio, a gallon of water for each person per day, cash, first-aid supplies and nonperishable food are among the items to have.
Get fueled up
Ensure home heating fuel, generator fuel and automobile tanks are filled.
Remove leaves from areas near storm drains
If drainage areas aren't clear, flooding could occur.
Have a plan to check on elderly, those with critical care needs
A backup plan for those with critical care needs should be made in case of a power outage.
Stay updated with the latest information
If the Emergency Operations Center is activated and staffed, residents can call 888-543-8362. The Carroll County Office of Public Safety will offer updates at http://www.facebook.com/CCOPSSS. The county's Twitter feed is at http://www.twitter.com/CarrollCoMD.
Social networking updates
This blog will be updated regularly, but my quick-hitter updates will be posted at http://www.facebook.com/weatherornotmd and http://www.twitter.com/brandoncct.
