Either President Barack Obama is responsible for the terrible economy over the last three years or he had nothing to do with it. It all depends, you see, on how well the economy is doing.
If the economy is weak, Obama is to blame. If the economy is improving, he had nothing to do with it.
This is the way it goes in the crazy world of American politics these days as GOP presidential candidates try to deal with the fact that the American economy is slowly improving under Obama's watch. Because their presidential campaigns have been largely about the poor economy, their economic message needs updating.
In response, the GOP has tested some new messages with mixed results. One is that while the economy is improving, it should never have been as bad as it was in the first place, and Obama made it worse. This message is being tested by the Mitt Romney campaign. But since everyone knows that the Obama administration inherited the recession from the previous Republican administration, I don't know how this message will fly. As far as Obama making things worse, the data tell a very different story.
When Obama took office in January 2009, the American economy was losing about 800,000 jobs per month.
Obama turned that negative job growth into a positive job growth in one year. Since then, more than 3.7 million jobs have been created over the last 23 months, including 243,000 new jobs in January. This compares with the last 12 months of the Bush administration, when 4.5 million jobs were lost.
The stock market is at a three-year high, which is good news for investors and for folks looking at their retirement portfolios every day and wondering if and when they might be able to retire.
Thanks to record low interest rates, more people are purchasing homes and contractors are getting back to work.
Romney will try to say that the past three years were more difficult than necessary because of Obama's policies. But economists credit Obama's stimulus package with creating 3.3 million new jobs and saving the American auto industry.
The second campaign response being tested is that the economy is improving because of the new GOP governors elected in 2010. This new argument was tested by Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell, who told CNN, "Look, I'm glad the economy is starting to recover, but I think it's because of what Republican governors are doing in their states, not because of the president."
The problem with this argument, however, is that the economy is improving nationally, including in states where Democratic governors rule. So, good luck with that one.
Writing for The Huffington Post, Sahil Kapur suggests that the improved economy is "problematic because Republicans have been eager to give Obama ownership of the economy. But McDonnell's trial balloon suggests that if the economic indicators continue to tick upward, the 2012 elections could shift from a battle over who's to blame for a weak economy to who deserves credit for an improving one."
Then again, Republicans could try to change the subject. Anyone want to discuss birth control?
