Forecasters are calling for moderate snow over the weekend in Carroll, with exact totals depending on location and how much the system might exceed expectations.
“Right now, we’ve got between 1 and 2 inches for Carroll County,” said Kyle Pallozzi, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in Sterling, Virginia. “Pretty high confidence you will get at least an inch and then as a high end, a one in 10 chance, we have 5 inches. Official forecast is about 1 to 2 inches.”
That’s about what local forecast group Foot’s Forecast is expecting as well, according to Executive Director Keith Krichinsky, though he is expecting more geographic variation.
“We’re looking at 1-3 for the northern parts of the county and 2-4 for the southern parts of the county,” Krichinsky said. “Keep in mind that every rain even we’ve had over the past two or three months has over-performed, that’s always a possibility here, too.”
Krichinsky’s call if the system does over-perform?
“At the high end I would say the county could see 6 to 8 inches for some parts of the county, but that’s a one in 10 chance,” he said. “But if this stays further south like some of the models are forecasting, it might just stay on the lower side.”
That would mean a “heavy dusting,” as Krichinsky calls it.
“It’s moreso an annoyance than anything else,” he said. “It’s just enough to mess up the roads but not enough to close anything down.”
The snow, however much it might be, is expected primarily on Saturday, according to Pallozzi.
“In terms of timing, snow would probably start around or shortly after noon on Saturday morning and continuing through Saturday night and potentially into the day Sunday, although that is a little bit more uncertain,” he said.
“One of the models is showing some of the heaviest stuff hitting Sunday morning, but that’s one model out of 40,” Krichinksy noted. “Other models are saying it will be a light snow.”
Anyone hoping for a significant thaw after the snow might be disappointed, as both Pallozzi and Krichinsky expected temperatures to remain in the the 30s for highs and dip into lows in the mid-20s into the following week.
“We might see a slight warm-up into the low 40s, but for the most part I think we will stay in the 30s for the next few weeks,” Krichinsky said. “We’re also looking at something toward the end of next week as well, another snow event.”
The winter season in Carroll thus far has been following a pattern where an opportunity for precipitation presents itself every three to five days, Krichinsky said, and that’s just what the weekend of Jan. 19 could be — an opportunity, but not a certainty.
“We’re talking another eight days away, so it’s just preliminary,” he said. “This is the hardest area in the country to forecast for. There’s just so many variables.”