The economy is still on shaky ground. The state has few major primary showdowns. And by the general elections, there will likely be only a handful of top-dollar, hotly contested races here.
Yet political ad spending on Baltimore television could break the 2006 record of $17 million by the midterm elections on Nov. 2.
Local radio is going to have a banner year as well, analysts say, thanks to a Supreme Court ruling opening the floodgates on advocacy advertising. Meanwhile, deep-pocketed Democrats will be spending big over the airwaves to counter anti-incumbent sentiment in these contentious times.
"To some extent, there are no handcuffs — there's very little to limit spending now after the 'Citizens United' Supreme Court case," says Sam Feist, CNN political director and vice president for Washington programming. "The floodgates are open, and the amount of spending district and statewide is going to be absolutely remarkable. … So, in Maryland, that's the governor's race and the 1st Congressional District and any advocacy campaigns."
The supply of money from candidates and policy advocates eager to buy radio and TV advertising time in Baltimore is anticipated to be so strong that one network affiliate has already added an extra newscast in part to meet the demand. Because of that demand, some advertising agency executives have been advising their clients to buy in advance if they don't want to be squeezed off the local airwaves this fall.
"In 2006, Baltimore had a record of $17 million in TV political spending," says Bill Fanshawe, general manager of WBFF-Channel 45, and WNUV-Channel 54. "In 2010, I think it could go as high as $20 million — and that's just television."
In anticipation of that kind of money, Fanshawe launched a 12:30 a.m. overnight newscast on WNUV, Baltimore's CW affiliate, which has no news operation of its own. The newscast is a replay of WBFF's 10 p.m. production, but it quickly found a nightly audience of 14,450 area homes in July — and there is no environment political advertisers like better than news because of the credibility they believe it lends their messages.
Sinclair Broadcast Group Inc., the Hunt Valley-based media company that owns and operates Channels 45 and 54, reported this month that its second-quarter profit jumped nearly 600 percent — and attributed the surge to political candidates and car dealerships buying more ad time.
Political advertising for the second quarter of 2010 on Sinclair's TV stations was $3.8 million compared with $700,000 in the second quarter of 2009.
And it is not just Sinclair stations — or only Baltimore broadcasters that will be reaping the benefits of this increased political spending.
"Because the House of Representatives is being contested, and there are a lot of terrific statewide races, I think you're going to see record spending at the local level for a midterm election," Feist says.
The issue of slots at Arundel Mills mall is the referendum question broadcasters expect to generate the most advertising in Baltimore. TV ads opposing the parlor at the mall began airing Friday. But as a result of the 5-4 Supreme Court ruling Jan. 21 in Citizens United v. Federal Elections Commission, which said limits could not be put on how much corporations can spend on issue advertising, media buyers expect an array of issues to be taken up in paid political advertisements.
"We're expecting a record-breaking year of political spending in Baltimore radio and TV, and part of that is the gubernatorial race," says Daniel Robinson, media director at GKV, a Baltimore communications company.
"Given the Supreme Court ruling, we recommended early on that if any of our clients were advertising in the fourth quarter, please do it early," Robinson said.
Gov. Martin O'Malley's campaign has been spending about $160,000 a week on Baltimore TV advertising since early July, but much more spending is expected.
The first surge will come after Labor Day. But Ed Kiernan, general manager of WBAL Radio, says, "The bulk of it will be after Oct. 15. … Right up until Election Day, we'll be relatively booked with political advertising. Probably, in every commercial break during the day, there'll be one political [ad]."
Rick Abbruzzese, spokesman for the O'Malley campaign, says, "We will spend what we need to spend to be competitive and get our message out, both in the Baltimore market and the D.C. market, across all media." Abbruzzese says the campaign has $6.7 million in the bank.
"We certainly will be advertising on TV in Baltimore and probably elsewhere as well," says Andy Barth, spokesman for Ehrlich's election effort, which has "in excess of $2 million in the bank," according to a statement released Friday.
"We look forward to buying enough [airtime] to get our message out," Barth says. "We may not reach the same number of dollars raised that Governor O'Malley has in the last four years. But we have a plan and a budget and goal of what it would take to get our message out, and we're on course to reach that. We will begin in the near future to be seen and heard [on TV]. I don't have a specific start date, but it will be before too long."
The campaigns for both Ehrlich and O'Malley say they are using more new media than ever — including Facebook, YouTube and Google ads and banner ads. But even with the cost of staffers and consultants working the Internet, the spending on new media will be minor compared to what will be spent on broadcast buys in coming weeks and months.
The gubernatorial candidates' bank accounts suggest only one piece of the advertising action Baltimore and Washington TV and radio stations will likely be seeing on behalf of their campaigns. Analysts, broadcast executives and political strategists predict that national money will be spent in Maryland on both the governor's race and the 1st District showdown between incumbent Democrat Frank M. Kratovil Jr. and his Republican challenger.
"Everybody expects that the Republican Governors Association at some point will get involved in this race," Abbruzzese says of the battle between O'Malley and Ehrlich. "Their ads have been highly negative in other parts of the country, so I think we firmly expect to see those kinds of attack ads here."
Kratovil's opponent will also be getting national Republican money to buy TV and radio time in Baltimore, analysts say. While that is widely expected to be state Sen. Andrew P. Harris, conservative businessman Rob Fisher is making a splash in advance of the Sept. 14 GOP primary after spending $175,000 of his own money on TV advertising. Dark-horse Republican gubernatorial candidate Brian Murphy says he will be buying Baltimore TV and radio airtime as well as the primary nears.
Radio time does not command the same kind of money per ad as TV. But the volume is going to be great given the number of tight local races, lack of limits on advocacy spending and the ability of radio to be hyper-targeted, analysts say. Last week, candidate ads ranged from those of Libertarian gubernatorial candidate Susan J. Gaztanaga on WBAL to Baltimore County executive hopeful Kevin Kamenetz on WCAO (Heaven 600).
"For how many decades now have there been attempts to limit campaign spending, which is mostly television and radio spending?" CNN's Feist asked. "And at the end of the day, it never works. And just as 2006 and 2008 broke every record when it came to campaign spending, I expect that 2010 and then 2012 will break the previous records also."
david.zurawik@baltsun.com