Molly Shattuck could be sent to prison for 15 years for the sexual assault of a 15-year-old last year in Delaware, but analysts, precedents and sentencing guidelines suggest she will get far less.
Shattuck, 48, the former wife of former Constellation Energy CEO Mayo A. Shattuck, pleaded guilty in Georgetown, Del., this week to a single count of fourth-degree rape.
The former Ravens cheerleader and fitness author was accused of performing oral sex on a McDonogh School classmate of her son last summer at a rented vacation house in Bethany Beach.
Under the terms of her plea, she avoided a more serious rape charge that carries a minimum sentence of two years. She is due to be sentenced following a hearing in August.
The plea agreement does not specify a sentence but calls for "open sentencing" — a "dog whistle," veteran Delaware defense attorney Joe Hurley said, that indicates prosecutors will ask for some jail time.
Sentencing guidelines in Delaware suggest that Shattuck will serve up to two years in prison. Hurley said it was "very unlikely" that she would be sentenced to more than that.
A spokesman for the Delaware Department of Justice, which is prosecuting the case, declined to comment. He said the office would recommend terms after completing a pre-sentence investigation.
Some elements of Shattuck's fate are already clear. She will be required to register as a sex offender in Delaware, and she has agreed not to have any unsupervised contact with children other than her own.
She will not be eligible for home detention unless she takes up residence in Delaware, Hurley said. She could be sentenced to probation.
The pre-sentence investigation involves a detailed review of the case against Shattuck. Court officials will probe her motivation for committing the crime, her personal history and her background.
The investigators might also gather information from the victim to get a sense of how he was affected. The Baltimore Sun does not publish the names of victims of sexual assault.
The Wilmington News Journal reported in 2013 that such reviews are rare in Delaware. Prosecutors and defense lawyers said they should be used more widely because they can help judges make better decisions.
State Prosecutor Kathleen M. Jennings told the News Journal she wanted courts to hand down well-tailored sentences.
"A judge can't sentence someone based on a plea agreement without knowing what's the educational level, what's the addiction history, what's the employment history.
"What is the person's family history?" she asked. "Have they ever had a job?"
The day Shattuck pleaded guilty, a sentence handed down in another Delaware courtroom offered a hint at how she might be treated.
Former prosecutor Daniel Simmons pleaded guilty in March to the same charge as Shattuck. He was sentenced Tuesday to 18 months in prison.
Shattuck's sentencing will cap a rapid fall for the former socialite, who seemed to be navigating her separation from her husband confidently, publishing the health and fitness guide "Vibrant Living" and promoting herself as a loving mother and lifestyle guru.
But prosecutors say she had started flirting with the 15-year-old over Instagram and developed a connection that culminated in the assault over the Labor Day weekend. By November, a Delaware grand jury had indicted Shattuck. A few days after that, her divorce was finalized.
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