The new medical loss ratio requirement (MLR) does nothing to address the real driver of premium increases: the underlying cost of medical care. Given the inherently unpredictable nature of health care costs, it is not surprising that some health plans expect to pay rebates to consumers in certain markets. However, the coverage disruptions and other unintended consequences of imposing a new arbitrary federal cap on health plan administrative costs are likely to outweigh any benefit these rebates will provide to consumers. Moreover, the taxes, benefit mandates, and other regulations included in the health care reform law will cause premium increases that far exceed the value of prospective rebates. For example, a technical analysis by Oliver Wyman estimates that the new health insurance tax included in the ACA "will increase premiums in the insured market on average by 1.9 percent to 2.3 percent in 2014," and by 2023 "will increase premiums 2.8 percent to 3.7 percent."