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Joe Biden favored to beat Donald Trump for first time since March: 2020 election odds tracker

2020 Election Odds

2020 Election Odds

Odds as of June 4 and via European sportsbook Betfair. Note that the implied probabilities are vig-free, so they’re not accounting for the cut the sportsbook is taking.

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If you’re new to betting, +110 odds mean a $100 bet would net $110 with a win. You can also covert odds using our Betting Odds Calculator.

Joe Biden is the favorite to win the 2020 presidential election for the first time since mid-March.

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After trailing Donald Trump on the odds board for much of the past three months, Biden drew even with Trump earlier this week with +100 odds at European sportsbook Betfair. Now Biden’s -110 odds give him a 47.3% vig-free implied probability of winning in November — a 2.1% increase over the past two days — while Trump is down to +110 (a 2.2% decrease).

The first significant shift in election odds comes amidst ongoing unrest across the country in the wake of George Floyd’s death.

The odds now better reflect recent polling, as Real Clear Politics’ average of major polls lists Biden at +7.8.

We’ll continue to track how election odds shift in the run up to November’s election. You can also find out how the betting markets are projecting the Democratic vice presidential nomination.

2020 Presidential Election Odds Tracker

Here’s a snapshot of how odds have evolved from week to week, starting with March 4 — the day after Super Tuesday.

2020 Presidential Election Odds Tracker

Presidential Race Updates

June 4

Amid ongoing protests in the wake of George Floyd’s death, the 2020 election odds market just saw its first significant change in months.

Donald Trump — who had been between a -110 and -120 favorite since mid-March — is now listed at even odds (+100) with Joe Biden at the European sportsbook Betfair.

Just one month ago, the betting market gave Trump a 46% vig-free implied probability of winning November’s election, which at the time was a 6.1% edge over Biden. Now their +100 odds give them each a 45.2% implied probability of winning.

As my colleague Bryan Mears recently discussed, betting markets haven’t necessarily reflected recent polling. And while the current odds are now closer to what polls seem to indicate about the state of the presidential race, Biden actually still has a +6 edge over Trump in Real Clear Politics’ average of notable polls:

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Polling Data

As the U.S. continues to grapple with issues of racial inequality and a virus that has claimed more than 100,000 American lives, it appears that betting markets have at least adjusted for the uncertainty of how the coming weeks and months will impact the presidential race.

May 13

There hasn’t been much movement on the 2020 election oddsboard in May.

Donald Trump is still favored to win in November. His -110 odds give him a 46% implied probability of winning — a more than 6% edge over Joe Biden, whose +120 odds give him a 39.9% implied probability.

May 5

Donald Trump has maintained his position as the favorite to win the 2020 election since mid-March, though his edge has shortened over the past three weeks — his implied probably of winning according to the betting market has fallen from 50.5% (-120 odds) to 46% (-110 odds) over that span.

Meanwhile, Joe Biden’s odds remain unaffected by the ongoing coverage of the sexual assault allegation against him, holding steady at +120 since mid-April.

April 13

Just five days after seeing a boost from Bernie Sanders dropping out of the race, Joe Biden’s election odds are once again trending downward while Donald Trump’s continue to rise.

Here’s how their implied probabilities of winning (per their odds) have shifted since last Wednesday:

  • Trump: 47.6% to 50.5% (+2.9%)
  • Biden: 45.5% to 42% (-3.5%)

April 8

Bernie Sanders ended his campaign on Wednesday, paving way for Joe Biden to (likely) secure the Democratic nomination in August.

Biden’s election odds saw a boost as a result, improving from a 40.4% implied probability (+125 odds) to 45.5% (+100). That puts him within nearly two percentage points of Donald Trump, who had been previously padding his lead on the odds board over the prior two weeks.

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April 3

Since re-emerging as the betting favorite 10 days ago, Donald Trump has held a steady lead over Joe Biden on the 2020 election odds board as the U.S. continues to navigate the nationwide COVID-19 outbreak.

Trump now has a 6.8% edge in implied probability over Biden (47.2% vs. 40.4%).

Here’s a brief snapshot of notable odds movement over that span:

  • March 24: Trump announces he hopes to relax social distancing guidelines by Easter. His odds move from +110 (tied with Biden) to -110, positioning him as the favorite once again.
  • March 25: Betfair adds election odds for New York governor Andrew Cuomo, who has seen those improve from +8000 (1.1% implied probability) to +2200 (3.9%) since.
  • March 27: Biden sees his odds dip from +110 to +120, or from 43.7% to 41.3% (-2.4%) in implied probability in just two days.
  • March 30: The day after reversing course on his Easter timeline to extend social distancing guidelines through the end of April, Trump sees his lead over Biden grow with the former Vice President’s odds slipping further to +125.

March 30

A day after Donald Trump announced that federal social distancing guidelines would be extended through the end of April, the gap has widened between Trump and Joe Biden in 2020 election odds.

Trump remains a -110 favorite (47.2% implied probability) to win in November, but Biden saw his implied probability fall from 41.3% (+120 odds) to 40.4% (+125 odds) between Friday and Monday — or 3.3% total since March 18.

March 27

After bottoming out at +110 odds (43.1% implied probability) last week, Donald Trump re-emerged as the betting favorite to win the general election earlier this week and is now padding his lead over Joe Biden.

The former Vice President is down to a +120 underdog as of Friday, representing a dip in implied probability from 43.7% to 41.3% (-2.4%) since this past Wednesday.

March 25

On Wednesday, European sportsbook Betfair added one more name to the 2020 election odds board: New York governor Andrew Cuomo, who is currently combatting a COVID-19 outbreak across his state.

Still, Cuomo hasn’t actually announced any intention of running as of writing, and his +8000 odds give him only a 1.1% chance of winning.

Donald Trump remains the favorite to win the general election with his 45.9% implied probability giving him a slight edge over Joe Biden, who has a 43.7% implied probability.

March 24

After hitting a new low of +110 (43.1% implied probability) only one week ago, Donald Trump’s odds to win the 2020 election are up to -110 (46.1% implied probability), meaning he is once again the favorite to win in November.

Trump’s 3% boost in implied probability comes at a cost to Joe Biden: While the former Vice President has held steady at +100 odds, his implied probability has dipped from 44.5% to 44% over the past week.

We’ll continue to monitor how the 2020 presidential election odds shift in the coming days and weeks, so be sure to check back as the race evolves.

March 19

Betting odds indicate the market is growing increasingly bearish on Donald Trump’s chances of re-election.

His odds reached a new low on Monday, bottoming out at +110 (43.1% implied probability). Trump has since bounced back to +100, but that still leaves him even with Joe Biden, who has gained significant ground since Super Tuesday (March 10), when he was a +500 underdog to win the presidency.

For context on how quickly Trump’s odds have fallen, his -162 odds heading into Super Tuesday gave him a 50.2% implied probability of winning. That’s now down to 44.5%.

Betfair is offering odds simply for President Donald Trump not to be re-elected — meaning it doesn’t pin him against Joe Biden or any other candidate; it’s just a yes/no bet — and Trump is listed as -137 to not be voted in for a second term.

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Trump is also positioned as an underdog in two other bet categories at Betfair:

  • Popular vote winner: The still to-be-officially-nominated candidate of the Democratic party is a -227 favorite (64.6% implied probability) to win the popular vote over Trump, who is listed at +163 odds (35.4%).
  • Winning party: Democrats are a -120 favorite to win the presidential election (49.7% implied probability) against the Republicans, who are -110 (47.6%). An independent is, unsurprisingly, a +3300 longshot (2.7%) to win.

Check out The Action Network for more expert sports betting information and to find the best online sportsbooks.

Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

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