In 2019, I was 54-29 (+17.7 units) on the draft and was also a top-20 mocker in the FantasyPros accuracy contest and Mock Draft Database contest.
While I rely on my own research, I also take a “wisdom of the crowds” approach by surveying an index of mock drafts.
I find that these drafts, created by experts with established records of success, collectively give me a good sense of the realistic range of outcomes for what we might see with any given player or pick.
Here are the 2021 NFL Draft props I’m betting right now.
In my post-Super Bowl mock draft, I have Chase going No. 6 to the Eagles and Devonta Smith No. 7 to the Lions, so it might seem as if they are in a tight race to be the top receiver in the class, but I don’t think this is close at all.
Entering college, Chase was the superior recruit.
Ja’Marr Chase: 4 stars
DeVonta Smith: 3-4 stars
Chase broke out as a 19-year-old sophomore; Smith, 21-year-old junior.
Chase is bigger and younger.
Simply put, he’s better.
And other experts agree. Chase is selected ahead of Smith in 13-of-16 surveyed mocks.
Unless something changes over the next two months, I think it would be a significant upset for Smith or any other receiver to be selected ahead of Chase.
If you could bet on Lawrence to be the No. 1 pick or No. 1 quarterback at anything under -1000, you’d automatically do that, right?
That’s how I feel about Sewell as the No. 1 offensive lineman in the class.
Sewell opted out of the 2020 season, but in 2019 he was a unanimous All-American and the winner of the Outland Trophy for his outstanding line play.
I really don’t think it’s up for debate: He’s clearly the best offensive lineman in the draft. He might even be the best overall player in the class.
There’s a legit non-zero chance that the Jets stick with quarterback Sam Darnold and take Sewell at No. 2 instead of selecting a passer.
Rashawn Slater is the only offensive lineman with a chance of challenging Sewell, but even he looks thin next to Sewell — literally but also figuratively.
In the indexed mocks, Sewell has the clear edge.
Median: Sewell – 5 | Slater – 11
Mode: Sewell – 5 | Slater – 13
In my post-Super Bowl mock, I have Sewell going No. 3 to the Dolphins and Slater No. 5 to the Bengals, but don’t let those relatively close draft positions fool you: It would be a massive upset for anyone other than Sewell to be the first offensive lineman taken.
Because he’s heavily favored, I won’t have a huge position on him, but I will go overweight as much as I think is reasonable.
PICK: Sewell No. 1 OL Taken (-715). 2.0 units. Limit: -1000
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