The Screen Actors Guild Award nominations were announced five minutes ago, and the awards won't be announced for another month. But why procrastinate? Let's pick the winners ... now!. Because of the size of the voting body (111,228 eligible members and counting!), the prizes typically go to consensus candidates. (Sorry, Jake. This isn't the Spirit Awards.) Here's our (really) early look at the races:
CAST IN A MOTION PICTURE
The nominees: "Birdman," "Boyhood," "The Grand Budapest Hotel," "The Imitation Game," "The Theory of Everything"
And the winner is: "Boyhood." Actors love the back story on this movie. The commitment! The passion! And no age makeup!
Unless: Voters often go for volume in this category, rewarding the biggest cast five years running until "American Hustle" upset the apple cart last year. Should they return to that thinking, "Grand Budapest" could pull off an upset, though "Birdman" logically should be the next in line.
The nominees: "The Big Bang Theory," "Brooklyn Nine-Nine," "Modern Family," "Orange Is the New Black," "Veep"
And the winner is: "Orange Is the New Black." It's hard to pick against four-time winner "Modern Family," but it feels like it's time to anoint something new.
Unless: Zzzzzzzz. Same old same old.
MALE ACTOR IN A TV DRAMA SERIES
The nominees: Steve Buscemi, "Boardwalk Empire"; Peter Dinklage, "Game of Thrones"; Woody Harrelson, "True Detective"; Matthew McConaughey, "True Detective"; Kevin Spacey, "House of Cards"
And the winner is: "All right! All right! All right!"
Unless: Voters can't remember what the psychosphere smelled like and go with Spacey.
FEMALE ACTOR IN A TV DRAMA SERIES
The nominees: Claire Danes, "Homeland"; Viola Davis, "How to Get Away With Murder"; Tatiana Maslany, "Orphan Black"; Julianna Margulies, "The Good Wife"; Maggie Smith, "Downton Abbey"; Robin Wright, "House of Cards"
And the winner is: Wright. But who knows? Smith won here last year, so probably any of the vets (sorry, Viola!) could take the prize.
Unless: Danes or Margulies, no strangers to walks up to the stage, prevail.
MALE ACTOR IN A TV COMEDY SERIES
The nominees: Ty Burrell, "Modern Family"; Louis C.K., "Louie"; William H. Macy, "Shameless"; Jim Parsons, "The Big Bang Theory"; Eric Stonestreet, "Modern Family"
And the winner is: Parsons. Alec Baldwin won this seven years running before finally losing last year to Burrell. Hard to imagine him starting a new streak, so let's say it's finally Parsons' time.
Unless: Start a new streak!
FEMALE ACTOR IN A TV COMEDY SERIES
The nominees: Uzo Aduba, "Orange Is the New Black"; Julie Bowen, "Modern Family"; Edie Falco, "Nurse Jackie"; Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "Veep"; Amy Poehler, "Parks and Recreation"
And the winner is: Louis-Dreyfus won her first SAG Award for "Veep" last year, and, given voters' propensity for rubber-stamping, we like her chances to repeat.
Unless: After finally winning a Globe last year, Poehler adds a SAG Award to the trophy case.
MALE ACTOR IN A TV MOVIE OR MINISERIES
The nominees: Adrien Brody, "Houdini"; Benedict Cumberbatch, "Sherlock: His Last Vow"; Richard Jenkins, "Olive Kitteridge"; Mark Ruffalo, "The Normal Heart"; Billy Bob Thornton, "Fargo"
And the winner is: Thornton. Voters have no shortage of choices, but we're guessing they'll remember Thornton — for the bangs, if nothing else.
Unless: SAG members have a strong desire to reward Cumberbatch somewhere and give him this prize.
FEMALE ACTOR IN A TV MOVIE OR MINISERIES
The nominees: Ellen Burstyn, "Flowers in the Attic"; Maggie Gyllenhaal, "The Honorable Woman"; Frances McDormand, "Olive Kitteridge"; Julia Roberts, "The Normal Heart"; Cicely Tyson, "The Trip to Bountiful"
And the winner is: McDormand. This award has gone to an HBO movie seven years running, and McDormand won wide acclaim for her turn.
Unless: SAG voters right the Emmys' wrong and give it to Tyson.