Analysis: Before "Frozen" opened last month, conventional wisdom had this Oscar going to the great Hayao Miyazaki for "The Wind Rises," the movie he says will be his last. But "Wind," a fictionalized bio of Zero airplane designer Jiro Horikoshi, isn't one of Miyazaki's more accessible movies, nor is it one of his best. And because Miyazaki had already won this category in 2003 for "Spirited Away," sentiment won't be a deciding factor. "Wind" will still make it in, though, perhaps pushing aside the lovely friendship story "Ernest & Celestine," the French movie distributed by GKIDS. The question: In a year dominated by decent commercial hits like "Despicable Me 2," can there be room for two animated art-house movies?