LS: The best way to understand the relationship between Obama and black voters is to just think about the relationship between first-term black mayors and their black constituents. So we just think about when [former Baltimore mayor Kurt] Schmoke was elected. Or Coleman Young in Detroit, Maynard Jackson in Atlanta, Richard Hatcher [in Gary, Ind.], Marion Barry [in Washington, D.C.]. When they are first elected, there is this moment of extreme joy. It's like, "Oh my god, I never thought this would be possible! Look at this-this is just absolutely awesome!" The whole world looks different, a whole range of opportunities open up that didn't seem possible before. But then, governance kicks in, and politics is extremely messy. The city is constrained by a number of factors-by state factors, by economic factors, by corporations and what they want to do. So the elected official has to deal with nonblack shareholders and partners, and it becomes really hard-and then doubt kicks in and reality sets in. All we have to do is take that and multiply it. So what's happening with Obama is there's this moment of extreme joy, but then governance creeps in, and you see that there are all sorts of ways he's constrained. A number of us still commit to voting for him, but the sheen has worn off. So he's going to get 90, 95 percent of the black vote, like he did last time, but turnout probably won't be the same.