Part of Silver's thesis is that there is so much noise that we can't accurately detect the signal. Living in a data-saturated epoch has made it increasingly difficult to predict anything with real accuracy. "We think we want information when we really want knowledge," he writes. The author celebrates "foxes"-deliberative, objective predictors-over "hedgehogs," pundits who recklessly predict from the gut, then spends a trenchant, exhaustive 400-plus pages delineating the worst predictions in history and how to avoid repeating them. In the run-up to the 2008 mortgage crisis, for example, rating agencies doomed the economy by mistaking uncertainties for risks. Exact economic predictions are impossible to make, not just due to contextual shifts in relation to the past, but because there are thousands of indictors to take into account. Silver also profiles successful Los Angeles bettor Haralabos Voulgaris, who maintains an edge over the competition by obsessively combing through NBA statistics, tweets, and coach interviews for data he can mine for an advantage. Silver notes that statistical models can inform Major League Baseball drafting decisions and weather forecasting, but actual, in-person observation is an indispensable part of the prediction process. Silver's tone throughout the book is measured, cool-headed, almost therapeutic-the sort you'd want a friend to have while urging you to put on a rally cap. It's the voice, ultimately, of the foxiest of all foxes.