Doug "Buxy" Buxbaum is wrapping up another summer running Buxy's Salty Dog Saloon in Ocean City, and it's shaping up to be one of the best in a long time. The economy has perked up. And the weather has cooperated.

But not this week. With Hurricane Earl expected to glance off the coastal resort town just ahead of the Labor Day holiday, hotels, restaurants and other tourism-dependent businesses are bracing for uncertainty — and cancelled trips — at the traditional end of summer.

"I've been here for storms before, and people still come," said Buxbaum. "Will they flock to the beach in droves? I don't know about that. But we're keeping our fingers crossed that the storm pushes out to sea."

The threat of a hurricane could dampen what has been a strong summer season for many businesses. While Labor Day isn't the biggest weekend of the summer — as schools increasingly begin the year in late August — it still draws sizable crowds. A good turnout typically depends on good weather and last-minute hotel bookings, business owners and tourism officials say.

So far, weather forecasts have indicated that Ocean City would be spared the brunt of Earl, but the storm is beating an unpredictable path. Susan Jones, the executive director of the Ocean City Hotel Motel Restaurant Association, noted that the latest forecasts looked good for Saturday and Sunday.

"We just have to get through Thursday night and Friday," she said. "Typically, with any hurricane, it's absolutely gorgeous after a bad rainstorm."

So far, the beach tourism business has been on the upswing this year.

Average occupancy rates for Ocean City hotels in July rose 7.2 percent from the year before, to nearly 75 percent, according to the latest figures from Smith Travel Research Inc. In June, occupancy rose more than 10 percent, to 67 percent. Room tax receipts increased 5 percent in June, to $2.18 million, the most recent numbers from the Worcester County Treasurer's Office show.

Visitor traffic is up as well. Ocean City's Department of Tourism estimates that total weekend visitors for July and August increased over those same months in 2009. The town had 1.46 million weekend visitors in August, estimates show.

Donna Abbott, a spokeswoman for the town, attributed the increases to more aggressive promotions, free events and package deals from hotels. She also credited the town's location as a drive-to destination.

Any lost business this weekend could mean more dependence on the "shoulder season" after Labor Day, a period the town promotes with events designed to lure people to town through September.

That part of the year also has been good to the Salty Dog, which draws more business during the shoulder season than it used to, Buxbaum said.

"Labor Day is like a busy August weekend; it's not like that grand finale it was years ago," he said. "But it's still a strong weekend, and going into September, this is the time of season a lot of us do depend on."

As of Tuesday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center issued a hurricane watch for the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Forecasts on Tuesday for Ocean City called for cloudy, breezy weather and showers late Thursday and Friday.

Still, Abbott said she is expecting some cancellations because "people will not want to chance it." Others waiting to book at the last minute might stay away if forecasts worsen.

"We're encouraging people to monitor the weather and not to change their travel plans — yet," Abbott said. "We're looking at a Friday weather event. With a hurricane, they move fast and then the sun comes out."

At the 28-unit Beachcomber Motel on 75th Street and Coastal Highway, which had a record July and overall excellent season, co-owner John Berry was hoping for the best. Berry has run the 28-unit motel for the past 17 years with his brother.

"For the upcoming weekend, it's not looking great," he said Tuesday. "We're watching the weather closely. We've had a couple of people cancel but overall not many. If we don't fill up, you could lose $7,000 to $8,000. It is big. We need it."

As of Tuesday afternoon, no one had cancelled a weekend stay at the Sea Hawk Motel on 124th Street and Coastal Highway, and the motel was booked solid through the weekend, said Linda Engh, the front desk manager.

"It's unreal," Engh said. "We're full. It is really surprising."

In Maryland, the hurricane prompted two cruise ships out of the port of Baltimore to make last-minute adjustments to itineraries and port calls in the Caribbean.

The Carnival Pride, on a seven-day cruise, is skipping a port call at Grand Turk Island. Instead, the Pride was to stop Wednesday at Port Canaveral, then spend two days in the Bahamas at Freeport and Nassau.

Royal Caribbean's Enchantment of the Seas, on a nine-night cruise, skipped a stop at St. Thomas on Monday. Instead, the cruise made calls at Samana, Dominican Republic, and Labadee, Haiti. The ship will spend the next three days at sea, returning to Baltimore on Saturday.

An estimated 637,200 Maryland residents are expected to take a trip of at least 50 miles round-trip away from home this holiday weekend, an increase of more than 9 percent from Labor Day 2009, according to projections by AAA Mid-Atlantic. But the organization warned that the impending storm could impact those plans.

"Marylanders are traveling yet again for another summer holiday weekend, despite the economic hardships many are still facing," thanks in part to lower gas prices, said Ragina C. Averella, a AAA spokeswoman. But she added, "The impact of the hurricane on travel this weekend will depend on what the storm does in the next 48 hours."

lorraine.mirabella@baltsun.com