Advocates say smart-growth policies pioneered in Maryland in the 1990s and strengthened under Gov. Martin O'Malley are key to boosting economic development, with benefits that go beyond containing sprawl and protecting the environment.
The question is whether Gov.-elect Larry Hogan, a Republican real estate developer, will maintain those policies once he takes office.
Hogan has remained close-lipped about his plans and, through a spokeswoman, declined to comment for this article. But his background is enough to prompt questions from smart growth proponents about the future of the policies.
"Certainly there has been a lot of concern expressed over whether we're going to see a wholesale rollback," said Dru Schmidt-Perkins, executive director of 1000 Friends of Maryland, a smart-growth group.
The governor-elect built his fortune through The Hogan Cos., an Annapolis real estate firm that has facilitated the sale of thousands of acres of undeveloped land to builders in Maryland.
He has expressed skepticism about the Red and Purple light rail lines, which advocates say are key to getting people to jobs more efficiently while reducing the need for new roads.
And he has spoken of the need to review the state's central planning policy, Plan Maryland, designed to funnel state resources to areas with existing infrastructure and populations, while preserving farmland and forests.
The plan was implemented in 2011 over the bitter protest of some rural counties. Key Hogan allies, including his appointees to lead the Planning and Labor, Licensing and Regulation departments as well as his brother and business partner, Patrick Hogan, have spoken or voted against it.
On Thursday, after announcing four new Cabinet appointments, including Harford County Executive David Craig to head the Planning Department, Hogan was asked whether he intended to do away with the current policies.
"There's been a lot of concerns and consternation by local government that the current planning office tried to usurp a lot of their authority and take away their zoning and planning decisions," Hogan said. "That's something we're certainly going to take a look at."
Advocates said they do not have a good sense of the new administration's plans.
But Schmidt-Perkins said she is optimistic that the economic case for smart-growth strategies will be enough to persuade Hogan — who made improving the state's economy the signature of his campaign — to stay the course.
"We don't see any reason for a huge defensive move," she said. "We're not seeing slash-and-burn on these critical programs because we don't see how it fits the goals that the governor-elect ran on and articulated so forcefully."
Maryland's first smart-growth policies were introduced in response to suburban sprawl, in an effort to locate new homes in areas with sewer — not septic — systems, roads and other infrastructure already in place in order to reduce costs to the state and address environmental concerns.
But the lingering effects of the recession — coupled with the election of a more business-friendly administration — have pushed economic factors to the fore.
"Economic development has always been part of Maryland's smart-growth model, but it hasn't always received the prominence that's needed," said Les Knapp, legal and policy counsel for the Maryland Association of Counties. "That is clearly changing at this point."
Densely populated areas help spur job growth, said Gerrit J. Knaap, executive director of the National Center for Smart Growth Research and Education at the University of Maryland. He cited the center's recent research, which found higher rates of business creation in 19 employment clusters in Maryland, ranging in size from downtown Baltimore and Bethesda to Hagerstown and Westminster.
Those areas account for about 1 percent of the state's land area but more than 35 percent of the state's employment, according to the studies.
"There's an important economic advantage to having firms locate near each other, so that's a good economic strategy and I think as a policy matter, we can do more to encourage that," said Gerrit Knaap, who is also a professor at the University of Maryland.
Knaap said focusing Plan Maryland incentives on job creation might fit Hogan's broader goals, while keeping smart-growth principles in place.
"The state has a whole panoply of different kinds of incentive programs. We're suggesting that targeting them spatially makes good sense," he said. "This is a natural way to refocus the state development plan. … The more we can strengthen the economic components of that plan, I think, the better."
While many developers prefer building on greenfields — previously undeveloped land — some market trends now favor infill and redevelopment. More young people and empty-nesters want urban living, and even industrial users such as Amazon are looking for sites close to large populations.
But some developers said their urban efforts have been hampered by a lack of clarity from the state about how some regulations, such as stormwater or traffic mitigation rules, apply to construction that does not occur on fresh ground. The hope is for change under the Hogan administration.
"You know what you have to do in the county with a greenfield site, but when it's a brownfield site … there's no question there's more of a negotiation with the state and local municipality over transportation and stormwater management," said James P. Lighthizer, the owner of Chesapeake Real Estate Group, which focuses on industrial properties. "The hope is that the business community will have a seat at the table to negotiate unique circumstances for properties that don't fall into the black-and-white greenfield site."
In October, the state's Sustainable Growth Commission released a report titled "Reinvest Maryland" that looked at ways to make infill development easier, with recommendations that included new financing mechanisms and streamlining permitting and project reviews.
"I feel very strongly that there's nothing partisan about the kinds of priorities that the commission has recommended," said Jon Laria, a Ballard Spahr attorney who chairs the commission. "They're economic development recommendations, which, if implemented, will benefit jurisdictions across the state."
The Hogan administration likely will focus first on the budget, not an overhaul of land-use policy, said Les Knapp of the Maryland Association of Counties. But the group — which opposed parts of Plan Maryland — hopes to see changes to make the policies less "one size fits all," he said.
"Maryland's model has been very forward-looking, cutting-edge. It's worked well for urban counties and urban areas, however [the Maryland Association of Counties] believes it does not currently really meet all of the needs of rural areas very well," he said. "We would call to bring the stakeholders together to tweak and amend the model to really look at specific growth issues, how to achieve a mixed-use community in a rural area. It's going to look a little different."
Craig, Hogan's appointee for planning secretary, is familiar with development debates from his more than nine years as Harford County executive.
His first big move was to veto a 2006 rezoning plan because it allowed too much growth outside designated areas. His 2012 master plan preserved farmland in Fallston, while opening roughly 700 acres for new development.
Craig introduced zoning legislation that would allow a hotly contested development of homes and a continuing care retirement community on the Eva-Mar property but also fought construction of a Wal-Mart and pushed the county to buy land in Aberdeen and on the waterfront in Havre de Grace for parks.
Running against Hogan in the Republican gubernatorial primary, Craig urged a re-examination of laws that limit development closest to the bay and its tributaries and pledged to eliminate taxes on septic systems and stormwater runoff.
But Harford under Craig also adopted a plan for septic development that protected critical environmental areas, said Erik Fisher, planner for the Chesapeake Bay Foundation.
"There's reasons for optimism," he said.
Fisher said there are ways to make development easier without scrapping environmental protections.
"We can't afford to buy into the false choice between the environment and the economy and start giving growth a free pass," he said. "I don't think the new administration needs to reinvent the wheel. There's a real groundwork to pick up and move some of these policies forward."