Here's a look at the Orioles' list of realistic trade chips, in order of most likely to be dealt at some point in the next five weeks.

Right-handed reliever Koji Uehara


Stats: 1-1, 1.80 ERA, 41 games, 45 innings, 23 hits, 8 walks, 59 strikeouts

Age: 36


Contract status: $3 million in 2011; $4 million option in 2012 that vests at 55 appearances

Current market value: High

Potential fits: Pittsburgh Pirates, Texas Rangers, Minnesota Twins, Detroit Tigers, Cincinnati Reds.

Skinny: Uehara, along with Johnson, has been the rock of the Orioles' bullpen and dealing him would make the late innings even more adventurous in Baltimore, but his value will never be higher. One scout said Uehara's 2012 option for $4 million makes him especially attractive because he can be shopped as more than just a rental. Texas would be the most logical fit since Buck Showalter and company know the Rangers' system and the Rangers are a shut-down bullpen away from another long postseason run. But it's hard to forget the Great Koji Meltdown in the Arlington heat last May, in which he was soaked with sweat and looked as if he were pitching under water. He missed more than a month after that with a forearm strain. But he has been healthy this season and his numbers can't be ignored, nor can what one talent evaluator called his "magic fastball," an 89-mph challenger that has befuddled hitters since last July.

Chances he's dealt: 80 percent

Right-handed starter Jeremy Guthrie

Stats: 4-14, 4.33 ERA, 23 games, 21 starts, 137 1/3 innings, 144 hits, 41 walks, 85 strikeouts. 11 quality starts

Age: 32

Contract status: $5.75 million in 2011; arbitration eligible for final time in 2012.

Current market value: Fairly High

Potential fits: Detroit Tigers, St. Louis Cardinals, Pittsburgh Pirates, Cincinnati Reds.

Skinny: That age-old baseball question may soon be answered: How much is a guy who has lost more than half his games in a season worth in a trade? The answer will determine whether Guthrie goes to a contender or stays with the Orioles and stares at the potential of a 20-loss season. Guthrie is the Orioles' primary innings-eater, so trading him would further decimate a shaky rotation and put more pressure on a beleaguered bullpen. Yet there are plenty of clubs that think all Guthrie needs is a change of scenery to go along with his 95-mph fastball. One scout said Guthrie would be an upgrade as a third or fourth starter for most contenders. And since there aren't a lot starting pitchers being mentioned as available — Colorado's Ubaldo Jimenez may be the best — Guthrie is likely near the top of the wish list for some. If he can bring back two potential pieces for the future, he is gone.


Chances he's dealt: 60 percent

First baseman Derrek Lee

Stats: .237 batting average, .292 on-base percentage, .380 slugging, 10 homers, 34 RBIs, 23 walks, 78 strikeouts, 80 games.

Age: 35

Contract status: $7.25 million in 2011; free agent in 2012

Current market value: Fairly Low

Potential fits: Arizona Diamondbacks, San Francisco Giants, Pittsburgh Pirates.

Skinny: Lee was traded by the Chicago Cubs to Atlanta in August of last year and improved some offensively with the Braves (.384 on-base percentage in 39 games) and provided solid defense. So there is a possibility the same type of move could happen this August and Lee could be dealt to a contending team that could use a bench bat, defensive replacement and calming veteran influence, if not a starting first baseman. Even so, the return would be minimal.

Chances he's dealt: 30 percent

Designated hitter Vladimir Guerrero

Stats: .279 batting average, .315 on-base percentage, .385 slugging, 7 homers, 31 RBIs, 11 walks, 36 strikeouts, 83 games.

Age: 36

Contract status: $8 million in 2011 ($3 million deferred); free agent in 2012

Current market value: Low

Potential fits: None at the moment

Skinny: One scout said Guerrero could be traded in August because he is Guerrero, and a desperate team might hope to catch "lightning in a bottle" with one of baseball's streakiest hitters. That risk would be based on past experiences and not current production. It would have to be an AL team since Guerrero is considered a DH only these days, unless a National League club wanted him solely as a pinch hitter (like Jim Thome with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2009). If a contender with a lackluster offense — Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Los Angeles Angels — suffered a key injury, Guerrero could be a fit once he demonstrates he's over the broken bone in his hand. Like Lee, getting someone to take Guerrero's salary may be a challenge.

Chances he's dealt: 25 percent

Left-handed reliever Michael Gonzalez

Stats: 1-2, 5.66 ERA, 37 games, 35 innings, 42 hits, 17 walks, 31 strikeouts

Age: 33

Contract status: $6 million in 2011; free agent in 2012

Current market value: Low

Potential fits: New York Yankees or any team with money to burn and lefty relief issues

Skinny: One talent evaluator said you could file Gonzalez in the "lefty and breathing" category. There's such a need for left-handed relief that Gonzalez, who has had a rough time in Baltimore, is probably one good stretch away from being dealt. The problem is he hasn't consistently had one of those stretches this year. Case in point: In eight of his last 10 appearances, spanning 6 2/3 innings, he has not allowed a run. In those other two games, he's allowed five runs in two innings. He is a seasoned veteran and has been good against left-handed hitters (.229 average in 70 at-bats) despite being awful against right-handers (.356 in 73 at-bats). So he'll pass through waivers and maybe someone takes a chance on him in August, but salary relief or a low-level minor leaguer is the best that can be expected in return.

Chances he's dealt: 10 percent

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