Though there are always a few cynical anti-fans who blast every move the Orioles make, the signing of Kevin Gregg does deepen the bullpen. I'm sure there was somebody out there who was better, which is -- of course -- proof that the team is still a trainwreck and will never, ever will really improve, but it's hard to make the case that a guy who averaged 30 saves the past four years won't be useful.
That said, the he-makes-us-better argument can ring a little hollow when you're coming off a season in which just about anybody who played well enough for another team to warrant a free agent contract probably would accomplish that not-so-lofty goal.
I think Gregg could be a very solid addition -- based on the 2010 Rolaids Relief Man standings, he was the second-best closer available in the free agent market -- but we already know the folly of putting too much stock in a reconfigured bullpen. Relievers are just two unpredictable from year to year. The Orioles have spent a lot of money over the past decade on relievers who were supposed to solve their end-of-game problems, only to be back in the market the following offseason.
Hopefully for Buck Showalter, this year will be different. I know there was some sniping over Jeremy Accardo, but you really can't judge some of the marginal moves totally on past performance. Everybody who watches baseball knows that several middle relievers come out of nowhere each season, so the percentage move is to find dependable arms for the eighth and ninth innings and build up enough depth to discover next year's hot middleman.
Gregg has a track record that suggests he will be a fairly dependable closer, but he's certainly not Mariano Rivera. He's a guy who has proven that he'll be successful about 85 percent of the time in save situations. The Orioles obviously hope that with Koji Uehara also available to save games, Buck can manage Gregg's workload in a way that will improve that percentage.
Don't misunderstand, 85 percent isn't bad. There were only five pitchers last year who were 90 percenters, and only one of them, Rafael Soriano, is among this year's free agent class. Gregg blew six saves last year, one more than Rivera and two fewer than Jonathan Papelbon.
If you put any stock in the Rolaids standings -- which, admittedly, are derived from a fairly simple statistical equation -- Gregg was tied for No. 9 overall with Papelbon, but was No. 2 among the available free agents.
Guess Disraeli was right. You can prove anything you want with statistics, so get to work and tell me why you think this was a good move or a bad one.
