Official forecast leans to rain, changing to snow

The action here is centered on a storm dropping out of the Rockies and developing on the Texas Gulf coast today. It will move east, gathering up lots of Gulf moisture and sending it north and east into the Southeast and mid-Atlantic states. Delays in that movement are expected to allow the arctic high-pressure system that's been making us so cold this weekend to move out of the way, moving our temperatures to moderate before the rain from the South gets here.

After that initial rain on Wednesday, NWS forecasters said: "THE SECOND PORTION OF THE SYSTEM...MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND UP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND OFF THE VA TIDEWATER. AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WOULD BE DECENT
COVERAGE OF PRECIP AND W/ THE COLD AIR WRAPPED AROUND THE UPPER LOW
- BETTER CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIP /MAINLY SNOW/ ACROSS THE AREA
BEFORE THE FEATURE DRIFTS OFF THE COAST LATE WED NIGHT."

AccuWeather.com's Brian Edwards this morning notes the potential for a significant snowstorm here if the storm tracks just right, but then concedes that is now less likely:

Foot's Forecast offers four scenarios this morning, but favors Scenario A: "The storm tracks along the coast Wednesday, bringing a mixture of rain and snow for the immediate I-95 corridor from Washington, D.C. to Philadelphia. Some snow would be possible for areas west of I-95 in western Maryland and western Virginia. Areas from Southern Maryland to the upper Eastern Shore would have a mix of rain and snow or just rain, with all rain for the Atlantic beaches. Liquid Precipitation totals for the I-95 corridor could exceed one inch in some places, however light snowfall amounts would be confined to a possible changeover to snow on the backside of the system."

We'll see. In the meantime, we are emerging from another very cold night on the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville, with a morning low at dawn today of 2 degrees. It's 7 degrees as I write this at 9 a.m.

BWI-Marshall reported a low of 8 degrees around 7 a.m. today. The record low for the date is 1 degree, recorded in 1963. The low at The Baltimore Sun's weather station, Calvert and Centre streets, was 16.7 degrees. Here (on the jump) are some other 7 a.m. readings from around the area. Feel free to report your lows in a comment.

Reagan National: 18 degrees

Dulles International:  6 degrees

Annapolis:  18 degrees

Martin State Airport:  12 degrees

College Park:  12 degrees

Westminster:  9 degrees

Hagerstown:  8 degrees

Cumberland:  7 degrees

Oakland:  9 degrees

Salisbury:  9 degrees

Ocean City:  13 degrees.