Looks like Central Maryland will be sliding back into a colder weather pattern for the rest of the week and on through the weekend. The good news would seem to be that the snow icons on the NWS forecast apperar to be mostly precautionary. Nobody is hyping this little system as a real snow threat, unless you're headed for New England this weekend.
Today's forecast high for BWI is 44 degrees, but at noon it's only 36 downtown. The forecast from Sterling calls for these sunny skies and clear, starry nights to continue for a bit longer. (It was a great night for watching the Quadrantid meteor shower, but I confess a warm bed had a stronger appeal.)
If we do make the 40s today, it will likely be the last we see of that territory for a while. There's a dry cold front due through the mid-Atlantic late today, and temperatures tomorrow will hold in the 30s. Overnight lows will fall to the mid-20s at best.
AccuWeather.com's Joe Bastardi says the first few weeks of January could be the coldest for much of the northern states since 1985. So much for our January warm-up.
High pressure will dominate through Wednesday. After that, forecasters have a series of clipper systems in store. They're expected to drop out of Canada on Thursday and boost our snow chances to 20 percent late Thursday and 30 percent on Friday and Friday night.
That said, the morning discussion from Sterling says little to be alarmed about: "Models keep most of the forecast area dry, except along the western-facing slopes and across the Mason-Dixon line."
AccuWeather.com has a coastal low developing from the clippers' energy off the mid-Atlantic coast (map). But their forecasters keep the storm's impact well to our north, with the greatest risk in northern New England as the storm heads that way on Saturday.
Eric the Red has few concerns about our weekend: "We may see some flurries or light snow on both days [Friday and Saturday]. I don't think we need to race out to Wegman's for this one, though."
But he has begun to note models that project something more next week. Maybe snow, certainly cold:
(SUN PHOTO: John Makely, Annapolis, January 2003)
"In the long term, the blocking high which briefly went away around New Year's eve is back and here to stay. That means money-in-the-bank cold. As new members of this list are rapidly figuring out, money-in-the-bank snow is a little harder to come by.
"As long as we have the blocking high (a negative NAO), then our chances for snow are better than average. It's just getting the pieces to line up. Just hasn't happened yet."
"Models are offering a storm for next week... and lo and behold, they also have a high to our north. So this bears watching for sure."