Sunday storm likely all rain; colder next week

Snow hounds' wishes for a big snowstorm this weekend appear to have melted away. The forecast models that had held out for snow or even mixed precipitation seem to have fallen into line with those predicting rain.

In the more immediate weather future, Central Maryland can expect more cold temperatures today as that stubborn low over eastern Canada continues to pump frigid air down from Canada. We had a low of 26 degrees here at The Sun's weather station at Calvert and Centre streets. It was 23 on the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville, and BWI-Marshall reported 22 - the lowest reading of the season so far.

We may get no higher than 33 degrees at the airport Wednesday afternoon, which would make this the coldest day of the season to date. The overnight low at BWI could drop to 20 degrees tonight and tomorrow night.

There is one break in the forecast for those of us who hate to hear that furnace cranking. The high pressure moving slowly into the region today and tomorrow will begin to move off to the east on Thursday. That will put us into the clockwise return flow, bringing slightly warmer air into the region. Highs should reach the mid- to upper-40s for the weekend - just a few degrees below the norms for this time of year.

But that will also bring us the storm system forecasters have been anticipating for days. The center is now forecast to move up the Appalachians Sunday, putting Central Maryland on the east side, which is also the milder and rainy side of the system. Precipitation could start late Saturday, with rain chances rising to 90 percent Sunday.

As that storm reaches New England Monday it is forecast to intensify. And that will draw more strong winds our way out of Canada. Forecasters say this new invasion of cold air next week will be colder than the one we're in now. Highs on Monday and Tuesday at BWI may have trouble reaching the freezing mark, with lows near 20.

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Love that electric blanket.

UPDATE, 2:30 p.m.: Eric the Red, a Baltimore forecaster and frequent contriibutor here, has just chimed in with a revised guesstimate. He says some of the models are now trending back toward a more wintry end to the weekend:

"This morning I would have put this weekend's storm odds at 90 percent all rain, 10 percent winter storm. I'm upping the ante a bit, thinking 60 percent all rain, 40 percent some sort of winter storm. It depends on a multitude of factors, with the main players being the track of the original storm and what sort of coastal development occurs, and if it does, where and when.

"If I had to give you a forecast now, I think I would go with mixed precip Saturday night ... with rain Sunday, changing to snow and sleet and becoming windy Sunday night, lasting into Monday."

(SUN PHOTO: Top: Lloyd Fox, Dec. 2007. Bottom: Amy Davis, Dec. 2004)

Sunday storm likely all rain; colder next week

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