Eclipse prospects dim, but Xmas snow possible

If we get lucky, the clouds will hold off long enough to get at least part of the show in. The period of totality lasts from 2:41 a.m. until 3:53 a.m.  If we miss it, it will be 2014 before we get our next chance to watch a total lunar  eclipse from start to finish.

Now, the good news - good, at least, for those who love to see snow falling on Christmas; bad if you're traveling. Either way, it doesn't happen much for Baltimoreans.

The weather service says we have a 30 percent chance of snow on Friday, with a daytime high of 37 degrees. Our chances get better overnight on Christmas Eve, with a 50 percent chance for snow, and a low of 29 degrees. And they're giving us a 40 percent chance of flakes on Christmas Day, and a high of 38. Sounds like wet snow.

That would be news. Statistically, Baltimore has only a 6 percent chance of measurable snowfall on Dec. 25, and just a 13 percent chance of having snow on the ground on that date. Since daily snow records were first kept in 1892, the city has recorded an inch or more of new snow only 6 times on Dec. 25, and five times on Dec. 24.

Foot's Forecast is already hyping this one, calling it "a potentially sleigh-crippling 12/24-25 storm that will make every Emergency Manager in the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic move to the Caymans, permanently. We're not kidding and this is not a drill."

AccuWeather.com's Henry Margusity, normally a snow-hype machine, seems to see arguments on both sides.

Jeff Halverson, an Associate Professor of geography and environmental science at UMBC, has some thoughts today on the prospects for a Christmas storm:

"Looking at the models this afternoon makes be a bit nervous about next weekend, which looks analogous to the big storms of '09-'10. At least one of the trusted models (GFS) rapidly blows up into a powerful nor'easter ... [with] significant sustained winds, bringing the possibility of single-digit wind-chills, local blizzard conditions and widespread power outages into the mix ..."

"Undoubtedly, the models will likely go through their usual gyrations with respect to intensity and track over the next 2-3 days, so it's important not to latch onto any one solution, but rather, noting trends that seem to stick."

Well, we'll see. It's too early to vest much confidence in the forecast. But at least they're not calling for highs near 60, like we had two years ago.

Words to clip to the fridge: The negative NAO - North Atlantic Oscillation - that has brought us such frigid weather this month, is headed for positive territory. That should mean milder weather in January.

(SUN PHOTO: Christmas Day storm, 2002, Doug Kapustin)