How can I break this to you? Someone dropped a copy of the 2011 Old Farmer's Almanac on my desk over the weekend. So, naturally, when I got in this morning, I immediately opened it to the 2011 weather forecast.
Well, first let me say there is good news on the page. The almanac's seers believe next summer will be relatively cool and dry. The cool part, we like. Of course, after the warmest summer on record for Baltimore, anything would seem cool by comparison. The dry part we may need to appeal, since we have been dealing with scarce rainfall and - in some parts of the state - drought throughout the summer of 2010.
Then there's the winter forecast. The Old Farmer believes the November-through-March period coming up will be "cold and snowy" across most of the South and into the mid-Atlantic states as far north as New York City.
The almanac's forecasters use a variety of indicators for their prognostications. They include sunspot cycles, and El Nino/La Nina patterns. La Nina is expected to be a factor this winter:
"We expect that a weak to moderate La Nina will develop for the winter of 2010-11. Most of the eastern portion of the nation will have below-normal winter temperatures, on average (the weaker the La Nina, the colder it will be) ... Snowfall will be above normal in most of the area from the mid-Atlantic states through the southeast part of the country and below normal in most other areas."
Here, I need to insert a caution. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center shows nothing of the kind. Their seasonal forecast for the December through February period shows equal chances for above- or below normal temperatures and precipitation in the mid-Atlantic states. In the Southeast, they expect below-normal temperatures, but also below-normal precipitation.
NOAA also says La Nina cooling in the equatorial Pacific began in late spring and has strengthened in recent weeks. And indications are it will continue to strengthen and persist through the winter. And the pattern seen most frequently during La Nina winters in the mid-Atlantic includes relatively warm temperatures - not cold. It also brings the jet stream (which generally also means the prevailing storm track) right over us, which would seem to suggest above-normal precipitation.
I leave it to you to sort out all this seemingly contradictory information. But if you hate snow, (and the Old Farmer is correct about weak La Ninas bringing colder winter weather) it seems like you should be rooting for a strong La Nina.
Or, maybe you should find a cheap condo in Florida.
(SUN PHOTOS: Top: Dec. 18-19, 2009 blizzard. Bottom: Feb. 5-6, 2010 blizzard. Both by Karl Merton Ferron)