In the end, Ms. Kagan made no major gaffes, and Republicans were unable to find any new ammunition against her, making any attempt at a filibuster unlikely. Democrats enjoy a sizeable majority in the Senate, and she will be confirmed. The factors that will affect the size of the majority that supports her will have nothing to do with what she said during her hearings and everything to do with external politics. The National Rifle Association has decided that based on her service in the Clinton White House, Ms. Kagan is hostile to the Second Amendment. Her assertion that recent decisions interpreting the right to bear arms as pertaining to individuals, not just militias, are settled law didn't matter. The advocacy group has indicated that it will use senators' votes for Ms. Kagan against them when it scores their fidelity to the NRA agenda, and that alone will probably be enough to prevent some Republicans from voting for her.