With April in the books and the year a third of the way complete, police are again touting crime declines, led by a 25 percent drop in homicides. As of this morning, 57 people have been slain in Baltimore - still a large number compared with other cities, but down considerably from the 75 killed at this point in 2009 and 94 who were killed at this point in 2007. The city had seen 154 non-fatal shootings on average over the past three years, but has recorded "only" 95 so far this year. That's a drop of 40 percent, despite the first weekend of May bringing at least three non-fatal shootings and a homicide.
I know many people continue to point to the snow as a driving force for this decline, but April wrapped with 16 homicides. Since 1970, the city has recorded 16 homicides or less only 10 times, according to my records. The Southeast District, which includes Canton, Fells Point, part of the Monument Street corridor, and Greektown, has yet to record a single homicide after notching 27 last year.
Total crime is down 6 percent as of April 24, but has been on the increase over the past month, according to most current police statistics available. In the past four weeks, the city notched 751 violent crimes, compared to 621 the previous month, and 2,029 property crimes, compared with 1,822 in the previous month. Those numbers, however, still compare favorably with the corresponding period last year, just not as favorably. To put it succinctly: crime increased in the past month but has still been down compared with the same period last year.
Homicides, at the moment, are the lowest since 1977, when the city had nearly 200,000 more people but recorded its lowest homicide total in the past 40 years. Looking at recent monthly averages, those numbers would seem virtually impossible to duplicate over the course of the year, but here's how they track so far:
1977
Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
10 15 14 10 16 12 16 16 9 16 17 20
2010
Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
12 12 16 16 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?