The "prediction markets" at Intrade are saying that 2010 has a good chance of being the warmest year on record. A recent bid of 75 on the contract that pays off if the record is broken indicates an implied probability (at least in bettors' minds) of 75 percent that it will be broken, Intrade says. (The contract pays off at 100 percent if 2010 breaks the record.)
The graph says the closing price is 65, but Intrade's site indicates the more recent price is 75. In either case, that's a sharp increase from less than 30 a few weeks ago. Maybe the warm weather is influencing bettors. But no, this week's temperatures don't indicate that climate change is real any more than the recent snowstorms indicate it's fake.
It's more or less random noise amid a long-term trend that data indicate is gradually upward. And Intrade's "predictions," while often intriguing, are far from infallible.