Although light snow has already been reported in the northern Baltimore suburbs this afternoon, Central Maryland should be spared a difficult time with the approaching storm.
The National Weather Service is predicting less than an inch of new snow at BWI tonight, after a period of rain this evening and a mixture of rain and snow between 10 p.m. and 1 a.m.
Most of the snow from this system will be to our south this time, as the AccuWeather.com snow map (left) shows.
Snow showers are likely after daybreak, changing to rain and snow showers later in the morning. The airport could see another half-inch of snow from that, if the forecast holds up. The mixed showers could continue into the evening as the storm departs and draws cold air in behind it.
The cold and wintry precipitation comes to us courtesy of a low forming off the Carolina coast, and a weaker system moving this way from the Ohio Valley. Late forecast model runs suggest the two storms will phase, or merge their energies a bit more than expected. That could mean the coastal storm will track nearer the beaches, bringing higher winds and heavier precip to Southern Maryland and the Eastern Shore on Wednesday.
Forecasters out at Sterling are having a hard time predicting BWI-Marshall snowfall accumulations for this one. The problem is the usual - timing, storm track and temperatures. "Light snowfall up to one inch seems possible," they say in their afternoon discussion. "But evening shift will need to monitor expected precipitation totals and temperatures in event that headlines become necessary."
One thing they do seem sure of - Garrett County will get more snow.
Wednesday night and Thursday will be windy as the storm departs to the northeast and high pressure builds from the west, forecasters say. That will eventually mean more sunshine and daytime highs stretching into the mid-50s by this weekend into early next week. It will be the first extended period of above-average temperatures since the end of January.
Student forecasters at FootsForecast.org are predicting 1 to 3 inches from DC to south central Pennsylvania. But nudging the storm track to the west a bit, they say, "will greatly enhance snow totals."
Eric the Red, a professional meteorologist from Baltimore, sounds a little nervous about twitches in the radar and model runs. He's holding his breath, but issued this prediction anyway:
"1 to 3 inches of wet snow north and west of town (I think the 3 might be pushing it, but what's 3 when you've had 30?), with rain possibly mixing with or changing to wet snow elsewhere with little accumulation ... maybe an inch. Weds: Periods of light rain and snow, with no additional accumulation."
I may have a new forecaster to add to the mix here. More on that if we wake up Wednesday to 3 to 6 inches of surprise snow.
Next, forecasters will be watching the snowpack in the western counties for signs of a rapid meltdown and flooding.