There's no doubt that one wrestling company is going into tonight's official launch of the new Monday Night War with momentum in the ratings, while the other company has been heading in the opposite direction as of late.
The road to WrestleMania has driven ratings up for WWE's Raw the past two weeks. After doing numbers in the 3.4 to 3.6 range for several weeks, the Feb. 22 show (the night after the Elimination Chamber pay-per-view) did a 3.8, and last Monday's episode did a 3.7.
Conversely, the ratings for TNA Impact have been going down since the Jan. 28 show did a 1.4, which was a company record for a Thursday episode. In the weeks following that show, Impact did a 1.2 for three straight weeks before dipping to 1.1 the past two weeks.Eric Bischoff claimed the rating for the Feb. 25 show was due to competition from the Olympics, but that theory didn't hold up when last Thursday's show did the same number. To make matters worse, the ratings for last week's show decreased in the second hour, with the big angle at the end involving Hulk Hogan and Ric Flair doing just a 0.9
So, should TNA be worried as they enter into a head-to-head competition with the WWE juggernaut? Well, obviously, declining ratings are never positive, but it's not time to panic yet. In fact, WWE doing strong numbers could actually help TNA grow its audience.
Last week's Raw had 5.3 million viewers, while Thursday's Impact had 1.5 million. It's very likely that a segment of the viewers who watch Raw but never watch Impact will be curious enough to flip channels periodically – especially if they see familiar faces such as Jeff Hardy and Rob Van Dam. So it won't surprise me at all if Impact is back up around 1.4. That may not sound impressive compared to Raw's ratings, but it at least stops the downward spiral and gives TNA a foundation to try and build on, not to mention a morale boost.
TNA president Dixie Carter made it clear three weeks ago at the news conference annoucing Impact's move to Mondays that she has realistic goals in regard to taking on Raw in a ratings battle.
"War is usually fought over a long period of time," she said. "Our goals have not changed from the very beginning, and that was to put out the very best wrestling company and continue to grow that product slow and steady. If we can hold numbers like we've had success on big Thursday nights and continue to grow that, and even have the kind of success we had on that one Monday night on Jan. 4, it'll be a good place to start."
TNA has pushed the idea that something big is going to happen in the first five minutes of tonight's show. If it has anything to do with Hardy, RVD or Sting, however, it won't be much of a surprise, as the word is out that all three are expected to be on the show. I jokingly made five guesses Sunday as to what the big angle could be, but all kidding aside, I am interested to see what it TNA comes up with.
I'm also interested to see how WWE reacts tonight to having competition. Publicly, the company has no-sold TNA's move – as well they should. The industry leader should never acknowledge a challenger that isn't in their league yet. However, I don't think it's a coincidence that Bret Hart made his return to WWE after a 12-year absence on Jan. 4, the same night that TNA aired a live, three-hour special episode of Impact. Nor do I think it's a coincidence that WWE announced on last week's Raw that Vince McMahon would be wrestling John Cena on tonight's show.
Let the games begin.