That much we can probably say with some certainty. The complex storm system headed our way will make for an interesting couple of days Wednesday and Thursday. But while we may well see some snow before we break back out into the sunshine for the weekend, unless Nature deals us a surprise (as some forecasters suggest), it looks like the worst of the storms' fury will be visited on New York and New England.
UPDATE: 12:31 p.m. Tues.: The National Weather Service has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for Central and Southern Maryland that includes the following:
"COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THIS STORM...SO PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
Earlier post resumes:
The most important piece of what's coming will be a storm that is tracking along the southern, subtropical branch of the jet stream today. It is expected to pass by to our south, emerging off the Carolina coast Wednesday or Wednesday night. There, gathering energy from the Gulf Stream, it is expected to intensify and move up the coast, curve toward the northwest and push inland.
AccuWeather.com is calling this an "historic" storm for upstate New York and New England, with loads of snow, blizzard conditions and near hurricane-force winds in some locations. (map at right)
"Cities likely to be impacted by heavy snow for all or at least part of the storm include: New York City, Albany, Rochester, Syracuse, Binghamton, Scranton, Allentown, Reading, Williamsport and Burlington. The storm also deliver heavy rain and flooding northeast of the center of circulation.
"The cities of Boston, Providence and Portland may have their hands full with coastal flooding problems."
The impact here in Maryland is less clear, although everyone seems to agree that we will experience a period of strong northwest winds as the storm's counter-clockwise circulation sweeps by to our east. AccuWeather.com predicts "blowout tides" from New Jersey to North Carolina. That will mean persistent low tides on the Chesapeake as the winds blow water out of the bay.
The question then becomes what sort of precipitation will we see. Those winds out of the northwest will bring in much colder air. And forecasters at Sterling believe the temperatures aloft will be plenty cold enough to support snow. The question is whether temperatures at the surface will allow that snow to land as snow. Says Sterling:
"Dynamics associated with upper low crossing the mid_atlantic Wednesday night/Thursday will be sufficient for chance [of precipitation]. Thermal profiles during the period supportive of snow ... but surface temperatures near 40 Thursday afternoon allow for rain/snow mix south and east of Interstate 95."