Though sales of mobile phones will slow or decline this year, Apple's iPhone will buck the trend with increased sales, according to an analyst quoted in the trade publication RCR Wireless last week.
Included in an article published last Monday, this news tidbit got lost among all the distractions of the Macworld Expo.
"Apple Inc. will continue to surge in smartphone shipment volumes with further market expansion," writes RCR Wireless' Phil Carson in paraphrasing the thoughts of analyst Bonny Joy of Strategy Analytics. Joy also expects Apple to gain ground on Research in Motion.
Carson paints an ugly picture of how the drooping economy will disrupt the mobile phone industry in 2009. All the analysts he interviewed predicted flat or negative growth (there's an oxymoron for you).
Only smart phones – the subcategory to which the iPhone belongs – promise to enjoy higher sales.
Forecasts for the overall cell phone market have sales falling anywhere from 3.5 percent to 10 percent. Smart phones sales should grow in the 9 to 14 percent range – better than negative for sure, but a steep drop from the 40 percent year-over-year growth they had in the third quarter of 2008.
The RCR article predicts virtually all the major handset makers but Apple will suffer; Carson describes several, such as Motorola and Palm, as "vulnerable."
"The strongest brands with the most alluring products may gain share as weakened competitors pull back in survival mode," Carson writes.
If the iPhone does maintain its momentum in 2009, it will boost Apple's ability to endure what may prove a disastrous year for many other consumer electronics companies.
