While veteran Rep. Wayne T. Gilchrest lost the First District primary Tuesday, congressional Republicans are confident of holding onto the seat this fall.
Democrats enjoy a slight edge over Republicans in registration in the district that includes the Eastern Shore and parts of Anne Arundel, Baltimore and Howard counties, but the moderate Gilchrest has held the seat since 1991.
In a memo circulated this morning, the National Republican Congressional Committee says internal polling shows state Sen. Andy Harris, who beat Gilchrest in the Republican primary, enjoying a wide lead over Queen Anne's County State's Attorney Frank Kratovil, the Democratic nominee.
The polls, conducted by Moore Information, show district voters backing Harris over Kratovil by 15 percentage points, according to the NRCC, with a similar result in a matchup between a generic Republican and a generic Democrat.
"This is a conservative district that votes Republican, Bob Ehrlich is beloved here, a healthy majority have an unfavorable opinion of Martin O'Malley and today Republicans have a 15 point edge on the generic ballot," the memo quotes pollster Hans Kaiser as saying. "Andy Harris is going to Congress."
George Bush won 57 percent of the First District vote in 2000 and 63 percent in 2004.
