With all this talk of odds and such, it's time to handicap this week's playoff games. After several weeks of trying to "crystal ball" games where some teams had nothing at stake and others were resting key players in anticipation of the playoffs, it's a relief to pick games for the wild-card weekend where you know both teams are going all out and everyone who can play, will play.
Last week, we went 1-1, easily winning the first-half pick of the Giants getting 10 against New England but losing the 38 1/2-point over in the Dallas-Washington game (Redskins, 27-6) because the Cowboys couldn't score even one touchdown. The season record now stands at 28-22-2.
Washington at Seattle (-3 1/2). On paper, this should be the Seahawks all the way. They're playing at home in unnerving Qwest Field. Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck is having just as good a year as he did when Seattle went to the Super Bowl; veteran receiver Bobby Engram is having the best season of his career and the Seahawks' defense is as tough as they come, especially against the pass. But for some reason, this is a team where the whole is less than the sum of it parts. These guys finished 10-6 mainly because they took advantage of playing in the weakest division in the NFL, the NFC West, and they had huge advantage in turnovers. Washington has been playing inspired football since the death of safety Sean Taylor. Of course, everyone is aware of quarterback Todd Collins coming off the bench and taking the Redskins' passing game vertical but Washington will have to get its running game going early to keep the Seahawks' pass rush at bay. If Washington keeps the turnover differential at least even, momentum carries the 'Skins through one more game. Pick: Redskins, getting 3 1/2.
N.Y. Giants at Tampa Bay (-3). This might be the most important bit of intelligence about this game. Four teams gave New England a tough fight this year. Three of those teams lost their next game. The Giants, who played the Patriots last week and lost an epic struggle, are the fourth. Here are the Patriots' tough wins and the teams that those opponents lost to the following week: Colts (Chargers), Eagles (Seahawks), Ravens (Colts). Now it could be argued that the Giants are a lot more likely to put the New England game behind them because this is the playoffs. But the bottom line is that the Patriots just seem to take the starch out of teams who put up a battle. This game is about protecting the ball. No secret there, most games (especially playoff games) are. Tampa Bay quarterback Jeff Garcia does a better job of that than Giants QB Eli Manning. Tampa Bay simply needs to limit the Giants' sacks to two or three. Pick: Buccaneers, giving 3.
