Green Bay at Detroit (3). If you were deciding the Green Bay-Detroit game tomorrow based on historical trends and even on this season, the pick probably would be the Lions. In this series over the last 10 years or so, the home team -- that's Detroit tomorrow -- has covered the spread 75 percent of the time. On top of that, the Lions, while a tepid 5-4-1 ATS overall this year, are 4-1 at Ford Field.
The Packers, though, have been torrid. They're not only a surprising 9-1 in the standings but 8-1-1 against the spread.
The Lions have been a pretty good bounce-back team this season. There were two times earlier this year when they were creamed and failed to cover and then came back to win outright and cover. But they failed to bounce back from a previous loss when they scored just 10 points against the New York Giants last week. The Lions (6-4) might be running out of steam.
In terms of Xs-and-Os, a key matchup will be on the Detroit right offensive side where Jonathan Scott will have to play tackle with a protected injured thumb against Green Bay LDE Aaron Kampmann, who has nine sacks. Pick: Packers, giving 3.
