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Picking against the spread: Packers-Cowboys

I'm going to select this one because I feel obligated to take a position on an important game like this one, although I'm not as certain about it as I normally like to be about a game.

Green Bay at Dallas (-7). First of all, that's a fair amount of points for a game involving two 10-1 teams. It started at 6 and shifted a point as the Dallas public money outpolled the Green Bay public money. And that's a solid seven, too, across the board both online and in Vegas. Dallas does have an edge in just about every statistical category you want to look at it. The only stat that shows Cowboy vulnerability is on pass defense, where they're No. 21 in the league. I think that number is deceiving but a more meaningful stat as you match Packer offense against Dallas defense is the number of sacks that Green Bay has given up -- just 14 with Brett Favre slinging on 425 attempts. Now, that's a key, so I do think the Packers will score their points. I'm a lot more concerned about the injury status of the Packers' defense with both cornerback Charles Woodson (toe) and defensive end Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila (ankle, at right) game-time decisions. And did you know that KBG's name translates to "Big Man Come and Save Me" -- just a little tidbit you can toss out there to impress your friends tonight. Packer DT Johnny Jolly is supposed to be definitely out so that will hurt Green Bay's inside rush defense rotation. As Xs-and-Os go, it just makes sense that the Cowboys run early, force the Packers into eight in the box and then turn T.O. and TE Jason Whitten loose. I'm actually tempted to just not pick a team and take a shot at the over-under, which is 52. If I had to make a choice there, it would be over. All right, time to make a decision. I think the Cowboys win but the Packers cover. Pick:  Packers, getting 7.

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