After going 3-1 last week, we're 5-1-2 on the year against the spread. A development that many handicappers have noticed is the that over-under was dominated by the over last week. The reason has been simple, a lot more passing. But it goes beyond that. More and more teams are using no-huddle offenses, even teams that you don't associate with that type of attack. No-huddles lengthen games, meaning more plays, and that means more points. Look at last week's Cardinals-Ravens game. The O-U was 38. With a minute left in the first half, the point total was 16 and then Yamon Figurs returned a punt 75 yards for a TD (normally in that situation, the best Baltimore does is drive for a field goal). But the real influence on the O-U came in the fourth quarter with the Ravens in position to sit on a 23-6 lead (nine points under the line). Arizona went to a no-huddle with a hot Kurt Warner and busted the O-U with 10 minutes left in the game (the final was 26-23) . So, if you're an O-U bettor, consider whether either or both teams have become no-huddle converts.
Green Bay at Minnesota (1) -- Shopping this one online, I've seen spreads making the Packers 1- to 3-point favorites. This has long been a contrarian's play. The road team is 9-1 in the last 10 against the spread and the underdog is 17-4 in the last 21. As most football fans know, the hot Packers are 3-0 and Brett Favre is about to break Dan Marino's all-time record for TD passes. This may be a trap play but I've sipped the Kool-Aid on Favre at the moment. If I can get the little points, I'm with the Pack. Pick: Packers, giving 1.
Houston at Atlanta (2 1/2) -- This one is teetering between 2 1/2 and 3 on the Internet with the smaller number leading. If you've been reading, you know that Houston is one of my favorite teams and Atlanta one of my least-favorites (in terms of beating the spread, that is). So we have an eclipse here. The Texans put up some stubborn resistance against the Colts last week on a day when QB Matt Schaub was not at his best so that shows Houston is a more well-rounded team than they've been given credit for. Houston WR Andre Johnson is still out (knee). But Atlanta CB DeAngelo Hall will sit part of the game (discipline). Pick: Houston, giving 2 1/2.
Tampa Bay at Carolina (-3) -- I think the Buccaneers are sneaky good, mainly because of an upgrade at quarterback in Jeff Garcia (above), who has always been underrated. This is one of those games where I think the 'dog can win outright. I wasn't too thrilled with the way Carolina let Atlanta hang around last week, either. I also like the under on this one at 40 but I confess, I don't have a good enough handle on whether either one of these clubs is inclined to pull the no-huddle out of its bag of tricks (see above). Pick: Buccaneers, getting 3.
Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants (2 1/2) -- I will admit that if you want the Eagles at less than a field goal, you have to shop hard. But I did. I found a 2 1/2-point line. Both teams are 1-2 and need this one badly with Dallas at 3-0. Eli Manning is having a pretty good season, and he has played well against Philadelphia in the past. The New York defense finally dug in its cleats against Washington in the second half last week. And the concern with the Eagles is that so many key players are nicked, especially RB Brian Westbrook (abdominal strain). The actual evaluation here is whether Westbrook plays. I think he does. Pick: Eagles, giving 2 1/2.
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