If you are considering drafting Larry Johnson, you might want to think again.
There are more questions surrounding the Chiefs superstar runner than there are about Kevin Federline being a father.
Johnson did finish second in NFL rushing last season and also notched the second-most rushing touchdowns, but he also set a record for carries in a season, with 416.
That number is key because when you look at his per-carry average, which was 4.3, you see that his lofty numbers were a result of bulk, not skill. That's not to say he's not talented; but his 4.3 yards-per-carry average ranked 18th among fulltime backs.
To contrast, if Frank Gore had 416 carries last season, he would have had 2246 rushing yards.
The Chiefs have spent ample time this offseason discussing how to shorten Johnson's workload, which means you can expect his carries to come down around 350.
Next in line for my criticism is the deterioration of the Chiefs offense line – and offense – in the past two seasons.
Remember a few seasons ago, when the Chiefs were one of the highest scoring teams in the league, engaged in weekly offensive shootouts and Priest Holmes was high-stepping into the end zone?
Now their offense looks like the picture of Dorian Gray – a shadow of what it used to be.
Last season, perennial Pro Bowl left tackle Willie Roaf retired. This season, Pro Bowl guard, Will Shields hung it up. This offensive line could be contending for worst outfit in the NFL.
As a result, Pro Bowl tight end, Tony Gonzalez, has had to spend more time blocking than receiving over the past two seasons, which has curtailed his effectiveness in the passing game.
Without Gonzalez releasing on passing routes as often, and without any other real conceivable receiving threat, opposing defenses have continued to move closer and closer to the line of scrimmage to crowd Johnson's running lanes.
At quarterback, the Chiefs will either be starting veteran Damon Huard, who is battling a calf injury, or second-year prospect, Brodie Croyle.
In the latest Chiefs preseason game this past Thursday, the Chiefs first-string offense gained 79 yards and five first downs in three quarters. Croyle finished 5-of-17 for 45 yards and an interception. And the Chiefs defense allowed 30 points.
Johnson has yet to play in the preseason but it looks like he is going to take a beating this season. Expect his yards-per-carry average to dip and expect him to see about 70 less carries.
Don't forget that he just signed a lucrative contract and has security. Last season, he was playing to get a fat paycheck and now that he's got it – like most athletes in their first year of a big deal – expect a significant drop-off.