Childs and I started to preview the '07 season in our first fantasy baseball podcast of the year yesterday. After talking about each player, I set an over/under on a specific stat, and Childs offered his opinion on what he'd take if the bet were actually available in Vegas (which it probably is because is there anything you can't bet on in Vegas?). I thought I'd share some of those numbers here.

Daisuke Matsuzaka; over/under on wins: 16


The Japanese sensation, who put together a 250-pitch, 17-inning outing in Japan's high school baseball tournament, will try to match the hype with the Red Sox. Childs thinks Matsuzaka's ERA could be higher than people expect because he's pitching in Boston, but 14-16 wins can be achieved.

Barry Bonds; over/under on home runs: 28

San Francisco's slugger needs 22 bombs to break Hank Aaron's all-time record. Bonds hit 26 homers in 2006 while playing in 130 games so this number could be slightly high. At 42-years-old, he is always a threat to break down and miss large amounts of time.

Randy Johnson; over/under on wins: 14

Even though his tenure with the Yankees is considered a disappointment (5.00 ERA last season), the Big Unit did win 17 games in each of the past two seasons. Johnson's 43-years-old, but he's started at least 33 games in each of the past three seasons. Childs thinks 14 is a little high, considering that Johnson was dominant with Arizona in 2004 (2.60 ERA, 290 Ks, 0.90 WHIP) but still won just 16 games. He also had back surgery in the offseason (Johnson, not Childs).

Alex Rodriguez; over/under on homers: 40

In a down season, A-Rod hit .290 with 35 bombs and 121 RBIs. But is he still an elite fantasy player?  Childs and I both think he's a good bet to hit more than 40 bombs, which he's done in seven of the last nine seasons (although just once in three seasons with the Yankees).

Derrek Lee; over/under on homers: 34

After playing in only 50 games last season, can Lee return to his '05 form when he hit .335 with 46 homers and 107 RBIs? From 2001 - 2005, Lee's homer totals increased every season, but he still has only hit more than 34 bombs once in his career. I think he'll get there this season.

Gary Sheffield, over/under on homers: 31

For some of these players, it was difficult for Childs to pick over or under, meaning I did a good job setting the number. That was not the case on Sheffield. Childs is down on the 38-year-old, who was dealt from the Yankees to the Tigers in the offseason. Sheffield played in just 39 games in '06, but hit at least 34 homers in each of the three previous seasons. Needless to say, Childs likes the under on this one.

Agree or disagree? Feel free to chime in.