Last week: 8-8

Overall: 8-8


Six-pack (my most confident picks of the week): 4-2

Raiders at Ravens


The difference: I watched both these teams play in week one from start to finish. I'm going to adopt a new rule for picking these games (No. 486 for those of you keeping track). Never under any circumstances bet on Aaron Brooks. After seeing the Raiders offensive line give up nine sacks last week against the Chargers, I think the two-touchdown line is just about right.

Fantasy nugget: Here's a breakdown of the Ravens players. As far as Oakland is concerned, I don't see any of their skill players putting up numbers. I own LaMont Jordan in one league and am seriously thinking of benching him for Thomas Jones after Jordan's 20-yard performance last week. Look for him to struggle once again.

The pick: Baltimore (-14.5)

Texans at Colts

The difference: The bad news continues for Texans fans (Texans fans do exist right? I've never actually met one). No Reggie Bush. No Domanick Davis. And now, I guess the All-Star platoon of Wali Lundy and Ron Dayne isn't good enough. Enter Samkon Gado from Green Bay. And I thought this offensive line was supposed to be better? Didn't look like it last week when the Texans surrenedered five sacks to the Eagles. Donovan McNabb threw for over 300 yards and three TDs in that one. Look for similar numbers from Peyton Manning.

Fantasy nugget: If you're like me and drafted Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Addai, hoping one would emerge and put up Edgerrin James-like numbers, you were disappointed in week one. The duo combined for 55 yards on 23 carries against the Giants. Put both guys on the shelf until they show something.

The pick: Colts (-14.5)

Browns at Bengals

The difference: Can we have Kellen Winslow Jr. and Chad Johnson cover each other in this one? Please? By the way, I think we underrate how genius it is that Johnson is known simply as 85. I have an IM football t-shirt that is one of my favorites. Maybe I can start going by 12. Hmm...doesn't have quite the same ring as 8-5. And yes, I realize this has nothing to do with the game.

Fantasy nugget: Words have been exchanged about how Johnson managed just two catches for 22 yards last year against Cleveland in a December matchup. Look for him to get in the end zone this week, and expect Carson Palmer to get more chances to air it out than he had last week.

The pick: Browns (+13)

Bills at Dolphins

The difference: The Dolphins probably aren't as bad as they showed in an 11-point loss to the Steelers, and Buffalo isn't as good as the team that only lost by a safety to New England. Don't underestimate the extra three days Nick Saban and the Miami coaching staff had to prepare for J.P. Losman.

Fantasy nugget: Ronnie Brown had a pair of touchdowns last week but managed just 30 yards. New England's running backs averaged 4.5 yards per carry against Buffalo last week. Look for Brown to have more success in week two.

The pick: Miami (-7)

Lions at Bears

The difference: Give Roy Williams credit. He didn't wait for the Lions to face the Packers or Raiders to make a guarantee. He made one before Detroit goes on the road to face a defense that pitched a shutout in week one. Did I mention the Lions managed 6 points against the Seahawks last week? However, its defense played well, and this one could be closer than people think.

Fantasy nugget: Thomas Jones ran for 63  yards in week one, while Cedric Benson put up 31. I still can't believe that teams are allowed to play two guys. Can't this be outlawed? Can't Roger Goodall make this his first order of business? Jones is still a decent option if you're hurting for starters. He's too valuable to the Bears' offense to not get his touches.

The pick: Detroit (+9.5)

Panthers at Vikings

The difference: Carolina got spanked by Atlanta in week one, while Minnesota posted an impressive road win at Washington. Now the Vikings get the Panthers at home, and they are underdogs? I think the Panthers struggle again, causing NFL experts to lose credibility and jump off their bandwagon right before Carolina turns it on in week three. The Vikings are talented and under the direction of a smart coach in Brad Childress, who not coincidentally comes from the School of Sweet 'Staches like Andy Reid and Mike Holmgren.

Fantasy nugget: I'm liking my Troy Williamson pick more and more after he posted four catches for 77 yards against Washington. Minnesota took several shots deep in that game, and Williamson could emerge as an explosive option for the Vikings offense this season.

The pick: Minnesota (+2.5)

Giants at Eagles

The difference: This game is guaranteed to come down to the wire (and you can tell Roy Williams I said that). The Giants ran the ball well in week one, but got the loss after a bad offensive pass interference call and an Eli Manning interception. Meanwhile, the Eagles will be without starting cornerback Lito Sheppard.

Fantasy nugget: Tiki Barber and Brandon Jacobs combined for 164 yards against the Colts. Philadelphia is rotating several defensive linemen like a college team. It looked like it worked in week one against the Texans, but New York's running game will be a much bigger test.

The Pick: Philadelphia (-3)

I'll get to the rest of the games Friday.

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