With barely 100 days until the November election, Democratic Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend's lead over Republican Rep. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. has shrunk to the narrowest of margins despite her early advantages in money, name recognition and party registration.
A poll conducted for The Sun shows Townsend leading Ehrlich 47 percent to 44 percent among likely voters, with 10 percent undecided. The slim gap represents a sharp slide for Townsend, who led Ehrlich by 15 points in a hypothetical matchup for governor in January, before the Timonium Republican announced his candidacy.
It also coincides with a significant change in how voters perceive her: nearly twice as many Marylanders say they have an unfavorable impression of the lieutenant governor now as did 18 months ago.
"Townsend has had a good year with a lot of publicity, most of it positive. She's gotten rid of her Democratic opponents," said Keith Haller, president of Potomac Survey Research of Bethesda, which conducted the poll. "On the surface, you would think that everything is going right. Below the surface, something more seems to be going on."
The telephone survey of 1,200 registered voters was conducted for The Sun and the Gazette newspapers from July 17-19. It has a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points.
Townsend lost the most support in Baltimore, where 58 percent of voters said they would vote for her, compared with 72 percent in January. Statewide, her support among African-Americans has dropped 13 percentage points in the past six months, from 90 percent to 77 percent.
Ehrlich appears to have gained the backing of black voters who have turned away from Townsend, perhaps validating his efforts to campaign in African-American communities in Baltimore and elsewhere.
"You can argue it's still summertime and people aren't paying attention to the campaign yet, but her slippage among Democrats and her base so early in the campaign is a bad sign," said Matthew Crenson, a Johns Hopkins University political science professor. "Her core supporters are drifting away."
Crenson and other observers believe Townsend will respond with an aggressive negative advertising strategy, focusing on Ehrlich's state and congressional voting record on gun control, housing and other issues.
Townsend would not comment on the poll results yesterday, but a spokesman, Len Foxwell, hinted at charges that might lie ahead.
"When it comes to inclusion, tolerance and civil rights, Bobby Ehrlich has failed," Foxwell said. "When it comes to educating our children, Bobby Ehrlich has failed. When it comes to supporting working families and protecting the environment, Bobby Ehrlich has failed. Bob Ehrlich's record makes him unfit to lead the state of Maryland."
Repeated attacks would almost surely decrease Ehrlich's favorability ratings. Forty-seven percent of voters say they have a favorable impression of the congressman, compared with 14 percent who don't like him. For Townsend, 52 percent say they have a favorable view, with 36 percent unfavorable.
Paul E. Schurick, an Ehrlich campaign aide, is braced for "an all-out aggressive negative campaign against Bob."
"That's all they've got left," he said. "What they've been trying to sell isn't working."
Ehrlich said in an interview that the poll numbers confirm momentum he has sensed, which he attributes more to media interest than aggressive action by his still-developing campaign.
"The question that polls like this put to rest forever is, 'Hey, Bob, can you win?'" Ehrlich said. "You can't turn on the radio or watch TV without hearing about the race. I've been surprised at how much attention it has gotten."
Townsend began the year a heavy favorite, pushing aside all other credible Democratic challengers in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly 2-to-1. Campaign reports due next month are expected to show her raising as much as $8 million to date, which would be nearly twice as much as Ehrlich.
But Townsend might be tarnished, in part, by her association with Gov. Parris N. Glendening, her political partner of more than seven years. The poll shows Glendening's job approval rating at its lowest point since the last election, with 42 percent of voters saying they like his performance in office and 45 percent saying they disapprove.
"Townsend's most difficult gangplank to walk is how she persuasively separates herself from the Glendening administration without appearing downright disrespectful and disloyal," Haller said.
Townsend's connection to Glendening costs her some potential votes, the poll shows, but 56 percent say it makes no difference.
One of Townsend's most prominent assets - her maiden name - appears to hurt her slightly.
About one in five Maryland voters say they are less likely to vote for the lieutenant governor because she is a member of the Kennedy family, compared with 6 percent who say they are more inclined to vote for her. Three-quarters of voters say the connection makes no difference.
Townsend is also hampered by the perception that she lacks the skills needed to do the job she is seeking. Asked if they agreed with the statement that "Kathleen Kennedy Townsend is not capable enough to handle the job of governor," 33 percent of voters said they agreed and 58 percent said they disagreed.
Detractors include Michael Brockington Sr., 55, a former cook from Baltimore who said he plans to vote for Ehrlich primarily because the congressman supports bringing slot machines to Maryland's racetracks and the lieutenant governor opposes expanded gambling.
"Kennedy Townsend doesn't strike me as a strong leader," said Brockington, a registered Democrat and an African-American. "She's going off the reputation of the Kennedy name."
Ehrlich, on the other hand, "is a pretty honest guy," Brockington said. "I think he would do a lot for Maryland. We need a change. Look how long the Democrats have been in there. They really haven't done too much for Maryland."
Statewide, 41 percent of voters said they agreed with the statement "Democrats have been running the state for too long." Fifty-two percent disagreed. Voters are almost evenly split on whether Democrats or Republicans are better able to handle state issues.
The results weren't all bad for the lieutenant governor.
Townsend made gains among younger voters. In January, she led Ehrlich 41-31 percent among voters under 34 and has increased that to 57-37 percent.
"We are so much better off today than we were four years ago, and we have been very impressed with what the team has done," said Ruth Huffman, 33, a Clarksville financial associate. "I know she's been a fairly powerful lieutenant governor, and I think she's very capable to be governor."
Huffman said she also likes "what Parris Glendening did for the environment, and I think Kathleen Kennedy Townsend would continue that."
Overall, 52 percent of voters said Townsend would protect the environment better, compared with Ehrlich's 28 percent. Almost half said she is better equipped to improve schools, while 35 percent said the congressman would be more capable.
The lieutenant governor holds commanding leads in the state's two most-populous jurisdictions, Prince George's County (71-20 percent) and Montgomery County (60-30 percent). Glendening's two statewide wins relied heavily on votes in those areas.
Ehrlich holds his largest leads in Baltimore County (58-30 percent); Anne Arundel County (53-36 percent); Western Maryland (52-35 percent) and the Eastern Shore (58-36 percent).
He is favored by white voters and by men, both by 51-40 percent margins.
Ehrlich is perceived as the better candidate to solve the state's budget problems, by a 43-36 percent edge, and as more effective at controlling crime, 46-32 percent.
Asked about the statement that "Bob Ehrlich is too conservative for Maryland," 23 percent said they agreed, and 53 percent said they disagreed.
The poll numbers contain a potential problem for the congressman: 34 percent of voters say they are less likely to vote for Ehrlich after learning that the National Rifle Association has supported him.
"It's clear she [Townsend] has not defined him yet, and she's been defined," said Steven R. Raabe, executive vice president of Potomac Survey Research. "The NRA tag for him would be a problem."
Voters are uninterested in either candidates' running mate selections, announced three weeks ago. Townsend's choice of retired Adm. Charles R. Larson, a former Republican, and Ehrlich's selection of state GOP Chairman Michael S. Steele, an African-American, will not have an impact on the race, voters said.
With the contest so close, both candidates seem sure to focus their message at the 10 percent of voters who remain undecided.
Baltimore County retiree Christopher Huston said neither Ehrlich nor Townsend has convinced him they are worth voting for.
"I would think Kathleen would be a bit wasteful as far as the money is concerned, continuing in Glendening's footsteps," said Huston, 80. "But neither am I a fan of that other guy, Ehrlich. ... I heard him on an interview on the radio, and I didn't like his remarks."
John Green, 58, a retired postal worker from Baltimore, said his mind is made up. He's voting for Townsend. He says Ehrlich is too closely aligned with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.
Asked what he likes about the lieutenant governor, Green said "If you really want to know the truth, nothing. I'm voting with my party."
A poll conducted for The Sun shows Townsend leading Ehrlich 47 percent to 44 percent among likely voters, with 10 percent undecided. The slim gap represents a sharp slide for Townsend, who led Ehrlich by 15 points in a hypothetical matchup for governor in January, before the Timonium Republican announced his candidacy.
It also coincides with a significant change in how voters perceive her: nearly twice as many Marylanders say they have an unfavorable impression of the lieutenant governor now as did 18 months ago.
"Townsend has had a good year with a lot of publicity, most of it positive. She's gotten rid of her Democratic opponents," said Keith Haller, president of Potomac Survey Research of Bethesda, which conducted the poll. "On the surface, you would think that everything is going right. Below the surface, something more seems to be going on."
The telephone survey of 1,200 registered voters was conducted for The Sun and the Gazette newspapers from July 17-19. It has a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points.
Townsend lost the most support in Baltimore, where 58 percent of voters said they would vote for her, compared with 72 percent in January. Statewide, her support among African-Americans has dropped 13 percentage points in the past six months, from 90 percent to 77 percent.
Ehrlich appears to have gained the backing of black voters who have turned away from Townsend, perhaps validating his efforts to campaign in African-American communities in Baltimore and elsewhere.
"You can argue it's still summertime and people aren't paying attention to the campaign yet, but her slippage among Democrats and her base so early in the campaign is a bad sign," said Matthew Crenson, a Johns Hopkins University political science professor. "Her core supporters are drifting away."
Crenson and other observers believe Townsend will respond with an aggressive negative advertising strategy, focusing on Ehrlich's state and congressional voting record on gun control, housing and other issues.
Townsend would not comment on the poll results yesterday, but a spokesman, Len Foxwell, hinted at charges that might lie ahead.
"When it comes to inclusion, tolerance and civil rights, Bobby Ehrlich has failed," Foxwell said. "When it comes to educating our children, Bobby Ehrlich has failed. When it comes to supporting working families and protecting the environment, Bobby Ehrlich has failed. Bob Ehrlich's record makes him unfit to lead the state of Maryland."
Repeated attacks would almost surely decrease Ehrlich's favorability ratings. Forty-seven percent of voters say they have a favorable impression of the congressman, compared with 14 percent who don't like him. For Townsend, 52 percent say they have a favorable view, with 36 percent unfavorable.
Paul E. Schurick, an Ehrlich campaign aide, is braced for "an all-out aggressive negative campaign against Bob."
"That's all they've got left," he said. "What they've been trying to sell isn't working."
Ehrlich said in an interview that the poll numbers confirm momentum he has sensed, which he attributes more to media interest than aggressive action by his still-developing campaign.
"The question that polls like this put to rest forever is, 'Hey, Bob, can you win?'" Ehrlich said. "You can't turn on the radio or watch TV without hearing about the race. I've been surprised at how much attention it has gotten."
Townsend began the year a heavy favorite, pushing aside all other credible Democratic challengers in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly 2-to-1. Campaign reports due next month are expected to show her raising as much as $8 million to date, which would be nearly twice as much as Ehrlich.
But Townsend might be tarnished, in part, by her association with Gov. Parris N. Glendening, her political partner of more than seven years. The poll shows Glendening's job approval rating at its lowest point since the last election, with 42 percent of voters saying they like his performance in office and 45 percent saying they disapprove.
"Townsend's most difficult gangplank to walk is how she persuasively separates herself from the Glendening administration without appearing downright disrespectful and disloyal," Haller said.
Townsend's connection to Glendening costs her some potential votes, the poll shows, but 56 percent say it makes no difference.
One of Townsend's most prominent assets - her maiden name - appears to hurt her slightly.
About one in five Maryland voters say they are less likely to vote for the lieutenant governor because she is a member of the Kennedy family, compared with 6 percent who say they are more inclined to vote for her. Three-quarters of voters say the connection makes no difference.
Townsend is also hampered by the perception that she lacks the skills needed to do the job she is seeking. Asked if they agreed with the statement that "Kathleen Kennedy Townsend is not capable enough to handle the job of governor," 33 percent of voters said they agreed and 58 percent said they disagreed.
Detractors include Michael Brockington Sr., 55, a former cook from Baltimore who said he plans to vote for Ehrlich primarily because the congressman supports bringing slot machines to Maryland's racetracks and the lieutenant governor opposes expanded gambling.
"Kennedy Townsend doesn't strike me as a strong leader," said Brockington, a registered Democrat and an African-American. "She's going off the reputation of the Kennedy name."
Ehrlich, on the other hand, "is a pretty honest guy," Brockington said. "I think he would do a lot for Maryland. We need a change. Look how long the Democrats have been in there. They really haven't done too much for Maryland."
Statewide, 41 percent of voters said they agreed with the statement "Democrats have been running the state for too long." Fifty-two percent disagreed. Voters are almost evenly split on whether Democrats or Republicans are better able to handle state issues.
The results weren't all bad for the lieutenant governor.
Townsend made gains among younger voters. In January, she led Ehrlich 41-31 percent among voters under 34 and has increased that to 57-37 percent.
"We are so much better off today than we were four years ago, and we have been very impressed with what the team has done," said Ruth Huffman, 33, a Clarksville financial associate. "I know she's been a fairly powerful lieutenant governor, and I think she's very capable to be governor."
Huffman said she also likes "what Parris Glendening did for the environment, and I think Kathleen Kennedy Townsend would continue that."
Overall, 52 percent of voters said Townsend would protect the environment better, compared with Ehrlich's 28 percent. Almost half said she is better equipped to improve schools, while 35 percent said the congressman would be more capable.
The lieutenant governor holds commanding leads in the state's two most-populous jurisdictions, Prince George's County (71-20 percent) and Montgomery County (60-30 percent). Glendening's two statewide wins relied heavily on votes in those areas.
Ehrlich holds his largest leads in Baltimore County (58-30 percent); Anne Arundel County (53-36 percent); Western Maryland (52-35 percent) and the Eastern Shore (58-36 percent).
He is favored by white voters and by men, both by 51-40 percent margins.
Ehrlich is perceived as the better candidate to solve the state's budget problems, by a 43-36 percent edge, and as more effective at controlling crime, 46-32 percent.
Asked about the statement that "Bob Ehrlich is too conservative for Maryland," 23 percent said they agreed, and 53 percent said they disagreed.
The poll numbers contain a potential problem for the congressman: 34 percent of voters say they are less likely to vote for Ehrlich after learning that the National Rifle Association has supported him.
"It's clear she [Townsend] has not defined him yet, and she's been defined," said Steven R. Raabe, executive vice president of Potomac Survey Research. "The NRA tag for him would be a problem."
Voters are uninterested in either candidates' running mate selections, announced three weeks ago. Townsend's choice of retired Adm. Charles R. Larson, a former Republican, and Ehrlich's selection of state GOP Chairman Michael S. Steele, an African-American, will not have an impact on the race, voters said.
With the contest so close, both candidates seem sure to focus their message at the 10 percent of voters who remain undecided.
Baltimore County retiree Christopher Huston said neither Ehrlich nor Townsend has convinced him they are worth voting for.
"I would think Kathleen would be a bit wasteful as far as the money is concerned, continuing in Glendening's footsteps," said Huston, 80. "But neither am I a fan of that other guy, Ehrlich. ... I heard him on an interview on the radio, and I didn't like his remarks."
John Green, 58, a retired postal worker from Baltimore, said his mind is made up. He's voting for Townsend. He says Ehrlich is too closely aligned with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.
Asked what he likes about the lieutenant governor, Green said "If you really want to know the truth, nothing. I'm voting with my party."