As the governor's race enters its final whirlwind weeks, Republican Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. is shifting his strategy in the all-important Washington suburbs, increasing his dollars and presence in Prince George's County, one of the state's most loyally Democratic jurisdictions - now called by his campaign "the center of the universe."
Ehrlich says he is adjusting his schedule to accommodate more trips to Prince George's and is spending more money there on mailings and other outreach efforts. His campaign is opening a second office in the county, in Upper Marlboro. And Doro Bush Koch, the president's sister, is holding a fund-raiser for Ehrlich tonight in the county.
Ehrlich says he has "inherited some of the infrastructure" - including former campaign workers - from two Democratic candidates who ran unsuccessfully in the primary race for Prince George's county executive. Wayne Clarke, who ran the county executive campaign of the Rev. C. Anthony Muse, has been hired to coordinate Ehrlich's Prince George's campaign.
At a Bowie bull roast last weekend for Audrey E. Scott, a Republican running for county executive, Ehrlich explained his purpose. "There's a reason I'm here," he said to the crowd. "Our [numbers] here are picking up dramatically."
Michael S. Steele, Ehrlich's running mate and a Prince George's native, has been beating the same drum. "The center of the universe is really here in Prince George's County," he told a group of supporters last week in Oxon Hill. "I can't tell you how important it is for all of you to touch a neighbor, touch a friend and get them to vote for us."
The strategy shift comes as Ehrlich's internal poll numbers in Montgomery, the state's largest county, are failing to rise. To win the election, Ehrlich's camp was banking on capturing at least 40 percent of the vote in Montgomery. But his numbers there are stuck in the 30s, he said, in part because of the barrage of TV ads airing there that criticize Ehrlich's record on gun control. With the serial sniper still free, Montgomery voters say they are paying more attention to gun laws.
So Ehrlich is hoping to make up for that potentially fatal lag by ratcheting up his Prince George's operation. Already, he says, he is polling above the 25 percent he thought he could win in the county. By Election Day, he added, he is optimistic he can get at least 30 percent - largely from well-to-do African-American business people who like his economic message of "opportunity" for minority companies and his promises to improve schools and ease traffic.
Democratic stronghold
Traditional political wisdom says Ehrlich's plan could be foolhardy. Besides Baltimore, Prince George's has the highest concentration of Democrats in Maryland; they outnumber registered Republicans 5-to 1.
Gov. Parris N. Glendening, who wasn't terribly popular in Prince George's at the time, won 74 percent of the vote there in 1998, against Ellen R. Sauerbrey.
By contrast, Montgomery County is home to Maryland's highest number of registered independent voters. Although the majority of its voters are registered Democrats, past elections have shown many of them are what pollsters call "persuadable."
"It's a bad strategic mistake," Keith Haller of Potomac Survey Research, a polling firm, said of Ehrlich's move. Prince George's "is absolutely [Kathleen Kennedy Townsend's] best political jurisdiction."
Townsend spokesman Peter Hamm said her campaign isn't worried. "Bob Ehrlich likes to talk in football terms. Well, this is a desperation pass," he said. "That's our home field advantage."
Interest in Ehrlich
But others, including Democrats, say if he plays his cards right, Ehrlich is poised to do much better in the county than history would predict.
"It doesn't sound crazy to me," said Democratic Del. Rushern L. Baker III, who ran for county executive and is the former chairman of his county's caucus in the Maryland House of Delegates. "I think a lot of people do find him appealing here. At least the people I'm talking to - mostly Democrats in their 40s, pretty successful - are at least looking at him."
Baker said there are Ehrlich signs on lawns in his Cheverly neighborhood, the first time he remembers seeing anyone in nearby streets boosting a Republican.
Ehrlich and others say there are several reasons Prince Georgians are checking him out. Many African-American voters there still feel burned by Townsend's choice of running mate, retired Adm. Charles R. Larson, a former Republican who is white.
"You have a Kennedy ... this person who's supposed to be a white person sensitive to the needs of African-Americans, and she picks not only a white man but a Republican," said Sydney Moore, who runs a Seabrook tire store and served in the administration of County Executive Wayne K. Curry. "If you are African-American and you've done everything white society has told you to do to sit at the table and you still don't get picked, it has to weigh on you."
Moore is a Republican, but he had planned to vote for Townsend if she picked a black running mate, he said.
Pro-business bent
Other African-Americans in Prince George's say they are interested in Ehrlich's pro-business bent. The county is the nation's wealthiest majority-black jurisdiction. Political consultants in Prince George's say the interests of a large portion of voters there are the same as those of wealthy, suburban voters everywhere; their political ideologies are linked not only to race, but to class.
"We're getting support in affluent African-American neighborhoods," Ehrlich said. "The business community is really strong here," he added, noting that the National Federation of Independent Business backs his candidacy. "An NFIB endorsement means a lot here."
Sandy and Terri Roberts, black Democrats who own a distributing company and live in the gated community of Woodmore in Mitchellville, held a reception for Ehrlich and Steele this month. About 200 of their neighbors came - mostly Democrats.
Terri Roberts said she was impressed by Ehrlich, and might vote for him. She has heard Townsend talk about the Kennedy family's commitment to civil rights, and her portrayal of Ehrlich as someone who voted against affirmative action and other programs that would help blacks.
"Even though that rhetoric always touches us to the core," Roberts said, "we're trying to get beyond that. There are other issues, issues related to business, our business."
As a Democrat, Clarke's working for Ehrlich, he said, "to show that the African-American community is not monolithic." And, he adds, he's not the only one. Clarke said Ehrlich's choice of Steele, although symbolic, "shows he gets it."
But even those rooting for him say Ehrlich will have to work mightily to get the 30 percent he is shooting for.
"He needs to come to Prince George's County, and he needs to explain his record and talk about what he's going to do," Moore said. "If he doesn't take care of business, he could end up losing by more than Sauerbrey."
Sun staff writer Tim Craig contributed to this article.
Ehrlich says he is adjusting his schedule to accommodate more trips to Prince George's and is spending more money there on mailings and other outreach efforts. His campaign is opening a second office in the county, in Upper Marlboro. And Doro Bush Koch, the president's sister, is holding a fund-raiser for Ehrlich tonight in the county.
Ehrlich says he has "inherited some of the infrastructure" - including former campaign workers - from two Democratic candidates who ran unsuccessfully in the primary race for Prince George's county executive. Wayne Clarke, who ran the county executive campaign of the Rev. C. Anthony Muse, has been hired to coordinate Ehrlich's Prince George's campaign.
At a Bowie bull roast last weekend for Audrey E. Scott, a Republican running for county executive, Ehrlich explained his purpose. "There's a reason I'm here," he said to the crowd. "Our [numbers] here are picking up dramatically."
Michael S. Steele, Ehrlich's running mate and a Prince George's native, has been beating the same drum. "The center of the universe is really here in Prince George's County," he told a group of supporters last week in Oxon Hill. "I can't tell you how important it is for all of you to touch a neighbor, touch a friend and get them to vote for us."
The strategy shift comes as Ehrlich's internal poll numbers in Montgomery, the state's largest county, are failing to rise. To win the election, Ehrlich's camp was banking on capturing at least 40 percent of the vote in Montgomery. But his numbers there are stuck in the 30s, he said, in part because of the barrage of TV ads airing there that criticize Ehrlich's record on gun control. With the serial sniper still free, Montgomery voters say they are paying more attention to gun laws.
So Ehrlich is hoping to make up for that potentially fatal lag by ratcheting up his Prince George's operation. Already, he says, he is polling above the 25 percent he thought he could win in the county. By Election Day, he added, he is optimistic he can get at least 30 percent - largely from well-to-do African-American business people who like his economic message of "opportunity" for minority companies and his promises to improve schools and ease traffic.
Gov. Parris N. Glendening, who wasn't terribly popular in Prince George's at the time, won 74 percent of the vote there in 1998, against Ellen R. Sauerbrey.
By contrast, Montgomery County is home to Maryland's highest number of registered independent voters. Although the majority of its voters are registered Democrats, past elections have shown many of them are what pollsters call "persuadable."
"It's a bad strategic mistake," Keith Haller of Potomac Survey Research, a polling firm, said of Ehrlich's move. Prince George's "is absolutely [Kathleen Kennedy Townsend's] best political jurisdiction."
Townsend spokesman Peter Hamm said her campaign isn't worried. "Bob Ehrlich likes to talk in football terms. Well, this is a desperation pass," he said. "That's our home field advantage."
"It doesn't sound crazy to me," said Democratic Del. Rushern L. Baker III, who ran for county executive and is the former chairman of his county's caucus in the Maryland House of Delegates. "I think a lot of people do find him appealing here. At least the people I'm talking to - mostly Democrats in their 40s, pretty successful - are at least looking at him."
Baker said there are Ehrlich signs on lawns in his Cheverly neighborhood, the first time he remembers seeing anyone in nearby streets boosting a Republican.
Ehrlich and others say there are several reasons Prince Georgians are checking him out. Many African-American voters there still feel burned by Townsend's choice of running mate, retired Adm. Charles R. Larson, a former Republican who is white.
"You have a Kennedy ... this person who's supposed to be a white person sensitive to the needs of African-Americans, and she picks not only a white man but a Republican," said Sydney Moore, who runs a Seabrook tire store and served in the administration of County Executive Wayne K. Curry. "If you are African-American and you've done everything white society has told you to do to sit at the table and you still don't get picked, it has to weigh on you."
Moore is a Republican, but he had planned to vote for Townsend if she picked a black running mate, he said.
"We're getting support in affluent African-American neighborhoods," Ehrlich said. "The business community is really strong here," he added, noting that the National Federation of Independent Business backs his candidacy. "An NFIB endorsement means a lot here."
Sandy and Terri Roberts, black Democrats who own a distributing company and live in the gated community of Woodmore in Mitchellville, held a reception for Ehrlich and Steele this month. About 200 of their neighbors came - mostly Democrats.
Terri Roberts said she was impressed by Ehrlich, and might vote for him. She has heard Townsend talk about the Kennedy family's commitment to civil rights, and her portrayal of Ehrlich as someone who voted against affirmative action and other programs that would help blacks.
"Even though that rhetoric always touches us to the core," Roberts said, "we're trying to get beyond that. There are other issues, issues related to business, our business."
As a Democrat, Clarke's working for Ehrlich, he said, "to show that the African-American community is not monolithic." And, he adds, he's not the only one. Clarke said Ehrlich's choice of Steele, although symbolic, "shows he gets it."
But even those rooting for him say Ehrlich will have to work mightily to get the 30 percent he is shooting for.
"He needs to come to Prince George's County, and he needs to explain his record and talk about what he's going to do," Moore said. "If he doesn't take care of business, he could end up losing by more than Sauerbrey."
Sun staff writer Tim Craig contributed to this article.