WASHINGTON - The United States is working to derail plans by a top United Nations weapons inspector for months of further inspections in Iraq, pressing him instead to intensify his efforts to expose alleged Iraqi deception between now and his next report to the U.N. Security Council late this month, administration officials said yesterday.
U.S. officials have called on inspector Hans Blix to scrap plans for a subsequent report to the council in March and plan to tell other council members today that without Iraqi cooperation, the whole inspections process will be of little use.
"Immediate, active cooperation and a final opportunity for Iraq to disarm - that should be the focus," a senior administration official said yesterday. "Are they or aren't they cooperating?"
This new, tougher posture by the Bush administration points toward a likely showdown with other members of the Security Council soon after Blix makes his next report Jan. 27.
At that point, the United States is expected to make a major effort to persuade other countries, as well as the American public, that Iraq has failed to comply with U.N. mandates.
This effort, in turn, could set the stage for either war or a last-minute diplomatic push to persuade Iraq to disclose and dismantle its weapons of mass destruction.
U-2 surveillance
U.S. officials spelled out their stance on future inspections as the Pentagon declared it was ready to fly high-altitude U-2 spy planes over Iraq to assist the inspectors but that Iraq had complained about using them.
Iraqis told Blix in a letter that sending the U-2s over central Iraq would complicate Iraqi air defense forces' mission of targeting British and American warplanes that patrol no-fly zones in northern and southern Iraq, Gen. Richard B. Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told a Pentagon news conference.
The United States has been pressing Blix to make use of the U-2 and unmanned Predator surveillance aircraft. Blix has agreed to accept the U-2s, with U.S. pilots, but a spokesman said yesterday that the aircraft won't be put into service until after U.N. officials in Baghdad discuss concerns raised in the Iraqi letter, dated Jan. 12.
Backed by most members of the Security Council, Blix and the other top U.N. weapons inspector, Mohamed ElBaradei, have stressed in recent days the need for more time to search for hidden Iraqi programs to produce nuclear, chemical and biological weapons.
Blix draws his authority from a 1999 resolution that created the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission, which he heads, and laid out a program for weapons inspections, installation of monitoring equipment in Iraq and follow-up inspections. If Iraq cooperated "in all respects," it would be rewarded by the removal of economic sanctions imposed in 1990 after it invaded Kuwait, according to the 1999 resolution.
Following that guideline, Blix told the British Broadcasting Corporation on Monday that he plans to report to the council in late March on further steps needed to disarm Iraq.
If the Security Council supports him, this could push the timetable for launching a war to disarm Iraq into April. U.S. military planners prefer to fight in the winter months before the intense desert heat sets in, which stands to enhance the rigors of the battlefield, particularly if soldiers have to don chemical-weapons suits.
The Bush administration insists that the resolution adopted Nov. 8 takes precedence over the 1999 resolution and highlights its offer of a "final opportunity" for Iraq to disarm before facing "serious consequences." That resolution also demands a full disclosure of Iraqi weapons programs and total cooperation with inspectors.
U.S. officials say Iraq already fell afoul of the new resolution by submitting a 12,000-page weapons declaration full of falsehoods and omissions. While not directly threatening to try to shut down the inspections after the Jan. 27 report, the officials say they want Blix and ElBaradei to concentrate only on the next two weeks.
"No realistic [future] program [of inspections] can be developed while Iraq lies and thwarts inspectors," a White House official said.
Mounting evidence
If the next two weeks are used properly by U.N. inspectors, U.S. officials say, they expect the evidence against President Saddam Hussein to mount.
First, they want Blix and ElBaradei to press Iraqi officials to fill in the gaps in the weapons declaration, and they say Iraqi refusal to answer the questions would be further evidence of a lack of cooperation.
Then they want inspectors to summon Iraqi scientists for private interviews, preferably in Cyprus or some other site outside Iraq.
"The way information is gained is through defectors and through people that are taken out of a country with their families and given a chance to tell the truth. And in the event that information like something approximating a smoking gun is to be found, it will, I suspect, be via that route," Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld said yesterday.
U.S. officials also want to see an intensification of surprise inspections in Iraq, using leads on specific sites supplied by American intelligence.
This new U.S. line was conveyed to Blix on Tuesday by Condoleezza Rice, President Bush's national security adviser, at a meeting in New York.
U.S. officials refuse to say what will happen after Blix gives his report Jan. 27, but they stress that "time is running out" on Hussein. The Security Council is due to meet behind closed doors Jan. 29, two days after Blix reports. Two days after that, the president is to huddle with British Prime Minister Tony Blair, his closest overseas ally, at Camp David.
Underlying the heightened American pressure on Blix is a debate about the purpose of inspections. Blix and El Baradei view their role as similar to detectives, drawing on inspectors' scientific knowledge, experience in Iraq and available intelligence to ferret out suspected Iraqi weapons programs.
Most members of the Security Council, even Britain, take a similar view, hoping that over time, with the steady threat of military force backing them up, the inspectors will succeed in discovering hidden weaponry and disarming Iraq. France and Britain agree that if Iraq obstructed the inspections, that could be grounds for war.
American officials, however, contend inspections are only worthwhile as a means of verifying a country's willing disarmament and say they are pointless without demonstrated cooperation.
"The burden of proof is on the Iraqi regime to show that it is disarming and to show the inspectors where the weapons are," Rumsfeld said yesterday.
"The success that inspectors have had in the past is not as finders, not as discoverers, not running around peeking under every rock, but by talking to knowledgeable people, defectors ... and then being cued as to where they can, in fact, go find something."
Blix sees another role for inspectors, saying their mere presence in Iraq serves as a deterrent against Iraq's developing weapons of mass destruction.
"Everyone should compare this with the other option," Blix told the BBC Monday, referring to a war. He cited "the number of casualties, the people who are injured, the destruction, etc.," as well as the anticipated $100 billion cost of an invasion.
A senior U.S. official dismissed that argument, saying, "We're not talking 'deterrent.' We're talking 'final opportunity to disarm.'"
U.S. officials have called on inspector Hans Blix to scrap plans for a subsequent report to the council in March and plan to tell other council members today that without Iraqi cooperation, the whole inspections process will be of little use.
"Immediate, active cooperation and a final opportunity for Iraq to disarm - that should be the focus," a senior administration official said yesterday. "Are they or aren't they cooperating?"
This new, tougher posture by the Bush administration points toward a likely showdown with other members of the Security Council soon after Blix makes his next report Jan. 27.
At that point, the United States is expected to make a major effort to persuade other countries, as well as the American public, that Iraq has failed to comply with U.N. mandates.
This effort, in turn, could set the stage for either war or a last-minute diplomatic push to persuade Iraq to disclose and dismantle its weapons of mass destruction.
Iraqis told Blix in a letter that sending the U-2s over central Iraq would complicate Iraqi air defense forces' mission of targeting British and American warplanes that patrol no-fly zones in northern and southern Iraq, Gen. Richard B. Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told a Pentagon news conference.
The United States has been pressing Blix to make use of the U-2 and unmanned Predator surveillance aircraft. Blix has agreed to accept the U-2s, with U.S. pilots, but a spokesman said yesterday that the aircraft won't be put into service until after U.N. officials in Baghdad discuss concerns raised in the Iraqi letter, dated Jan. 12.
Backed by most members of the Security Council, Blix and the other top U.N. weapons inspector, Mohamed ElBaradei, have stressed in recent days the need for more time to search for hidden Iraqi programs to produce nuclear, chemical and biological weapons.
Blix draws his authority from a 1999 resolution that created the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission, which he heads, and laid out a program for weapons inspections, installation of monitoring equipment in Iraq and follow-up inspections. If Iraq cooperated "in all respects," it would be rewarded by the removal of economic sanctions imposed in 1990 after it invaded Kuwait, according to the 1999 resolution.
Following that guideline, Blix told the British Broadcasting Corporation on Monday that he plans to report to the council in late March on further steps needed to disarm Iraq.
If the Security Council supports him, this could push the timetable for launching a war to disarm Iraq into April. U.S. military planners prefer to fight in the winter months before the intense desert heat sets in, which stands to enhance the rigors of the battlefield, particularly if soldiers have to don chemical-weapons suits.
The Bush administration insists that the resolution adopted Nov. 8 takes precedence over the 1999 resolution and highlights its offer of a "final opportunity" for Iraq to disarm before facing "serious consequences." That resolution also demands a full disclosure of Iraqi weapons programs and total cooperation with inspectors.
U.S. officials say Iraq already fell afoul of the new resolution by submitting a 12,000-page weapons declaration full of falsehoods and omissions. While not directly threatening to try to shut down the inspections after the Jan. 27 report, the officials say they want Blix and ElBaradei to concentrate only on the next two weeks.
"No realistic [future] program [of inspections] can be developed while Iraq lies and thwarts inspectors," a White House official said.
First, they want Blix and ElBaradei to press Iraqi officials to fill in the gaps in the weapons declaration, and they say Iraqi refusal to answer the questions would be further evidence of a lack of cooperation.
Then they want inspectors to summon Iraqi scientists for private interviews, preferably in Cyprus or some other site outside Iraq.
"The way information is gained is through defectors and through people that are taken out of a country with their families and given a chance to tell the truth. And in the event that information like something approximating a smoking gun is to be found, it will, I suspect, be via that route," Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld said yesterday.
U.S. officials also want to see an intensification of surprise inspections in Iraq, using leads on specific sites supplied by American intelligence.
This new U.S. line was conveyed to Blix on Tuesday by Condoleezza Rice, President Bush's national security adviser, at a meeting in New York.
U.S. officials refuse to say what will happen after Blix gives his report Jan. 27, but they stress that "time is running out" on Hussein. The Security Council is due to meet behind closed doors Jan. 29, two days after Blix reports. Two days after that, the president is to huddle with British Prime Minister Tony Blair, his closest overseas ally, at Camp David.
Underlying the heightened American pressure on Blix is a debate about the purpose of inspections. Blix and El Baradei view their role as similar to detectives, drawing on inspectors' scientific knowledge, experience in Iraq and available intelligence to ferret out suspected Iraqi weapons programs.
Most members of the Security Council, even Britain, take a similar view, hoping that over time, with the steady threat of military force backing them up, the inspectors will succeed in discovering hidden weaponry and disarming Iraq. France and Britain agree that if Iraq obstructed the inspections, that could be grounds for war.
American officials, however, contend inspections are only worthwhile as a means of verifying a country's willing disarmament and say they are pointless without demonstrated cooperation.
"The burden of proof is on the Iraqi regime to show that it is disarming and to show the inspectors where the weapons are," Rumsfeld said yesterday.
"The success that inspectors have had in the past is not as finders, not as discoverers, not running around peeking under every rock, but by talking to knowledgeable people, defectors ... and then being cued as to where they can, in fact, go find something."
Blix sees another role for inspectors, saying their mere presence in Iraq serves as a deterrent against Iraq's developing weapons of mass destruction.
"Everyone should compare this with the other option," Blix told the BBC Monday, referring to a war. He cited "the number of casualties, the people who are injured, the destruction, etc.," as well as the anticipated $100 billion cost of an invasion.
A senior U.S. official dismissed that argument, saying, "We're not talking 'deterrent.' We're talking 'final opportunity to disarm.'"