The group of academic economists who designate economic cycles in the United States is not ready to pinpoint an ending for last years recession.
The National Bureau of Economic Research said in a new memo that the latest economic data indicate "that the decline in activity that began last year may have come to an end."
However, the bureau business cycle dating committee said in the memo, dated Tuesday, that it would wait to designate the month the recession ended in order to be sure that any subsequent decline in economic activity was a separate recession and not a continuation of last years downturn.
The stock markets turmoil in recent weeks, triggered by investors concerns about corporate accounting scandals, has raised concerns about a possible double-dip recession, in which economic activity falters and the country drops back into recession.
"The committee waits for many months after an apparent trough to make its decision because of data revisions and the possibility that the contraction would resume," the panel said.
It noted that it did not declare an end to the previous 1990-91 recession until December 1992, a delay that some Republicans believe was a contributing factor in President George H.W. Bush losing the White House in November 1992 to Bill Clinton.
The six-member panel, composed of prominent economists at various universities, declared last November that the countrys 10-year-long economic expansion, the longest in history, ended in March 2001 with the start of the recession.
While many private economists believe the downturn probably ended in the early months of this year, the panel, which the government uses as the official arbiter of business cycles, has yet to make that ruling.
However, for a number of months it has been citing positive economic data to support such a view.
The latest memo noted that Americans personal incomes have been growing since last October and employment has grown slightly from May through July of this year.
Personal incomes, employment, industrial production and wholesale and retail sales are the key monthly indicators the panel watches to mark turning points in the economy.
While not willing to make a call that the recession has ended, it did announce that it has changed the makeup of its committee, adding N. Gregory Mankiw, an economist at Harvard University, to replace Ben Bernanke, who was confirmed by the Senate last week to the seven-member Federal Reserve Board.
The National Bureau of Economic Research said in a new memo that the latest economic data indicate "that the decline in activity that began last year may have come to an end."
However, the bureau business cycle dating committee said in the memo, dated Tuesday, that it would wait to designate the month the recession ended in order to be sure that any subsequent decline in economic activity was a separate recession and not a continuation of last years downturn.
The stock markets turmoil in recent weeks, triggered by investors concerns about corporate accounting scandals, has raised concerns about a possible double-dip recession, in which economic activity falters and the country drops back into recession.
"The committee waits for many months after an apparent trough to make its decision because of data revisions and the possibility that the contraction would resume," the panel said.
It noted that it did not declare an end to the previous 1990-91 recession until December 1992, a delay that some Republicans believe was a contributing factor in President George H.W. Bush losing the White House in November 1992 to Bill Clinton.
The six-member panel, composed of prominent economists at various universities, declared last November that the countrys 10-year-long economic expansion, the longest in history, ended in March 2001 with the start of the recession.
While many private economists believe the downturn probably ended in the early months of this year, the panel, which the government uses as the official arbiter of business cycles, has yet to make that ruling.
However, for a number of months it has been citing positive economic data to support such a view.
The latest memo noted that Americans personal incomes have been growing since last October and employment has grown slightly from May through July of this year.
Personal incomes, employment, industrial production and wholesale and retail sales are the key monthly indicators the panel watches to mark turning points in the economy.
While not willing to make a call that the recession has ended, it did announce that it has changed the makeup of its committee, adding N. Gregory Mankiw, an economist at Harvard University, to replace Ben Bernanke, who was confirmed by the Senate last week to the seven-member Federal Reserve Board.