With so much of the focus leading up to Saturday's Preakness on the "big three" horses — American Pharoah, Firing Line, and Dortmund — trainers of the other contending horses are quick to acknowledge their quality without laying the Black-Eyed Susan wreath on one of them before the race even begins.
"One of the things that compromises everybody in this race, other than maybe two horses is that the style of five or six of these horses is really the same," D. Wayne Lukas, trainer for Mr. Z, said. "You could see all of these horses coming together, and it might get into a trip race — who gets the best trip? — and it might get into a jockey's race — who's smart enough to know we're going too fast, too slow, or where will I be? That could very well shake out here."
Those three horses ran first, second, and third in the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago, and are heavy favorites to replicate that result Saturday, if not in the same order.
But American Pharoah and Dortmund, both trained by Bob Baffert, drew the two inside post positions for the eight-horse field on Saturday. That means they'll have to start quickly not to get caught on the inside rail by the first turn.
Many, including Baffert, expect Mr. Z to push the pace early.
"We're the quickest horse if we want to be," Lukas said. Mr. Z ran the Kentucky Derby and Arkansas Derby under the ownership of Zayat Stables, which also owns American Pharoah. Lukas indicated he might run differently now that he engineered a Wednesday sale of Mr. Z to Calumet Farm.
Baffert said Thursday that the break was "like the Indy 500," in that you can't spin out.
Jose Corrales, owner and trainer for the Laurel Park-based Bodhisattva, said he knew Baffert's horses would need to get away from the rail early.
"If you don't break quick enough, they're going to get trapped," Corrales said.
Many believe the two Baffert horses have the speed to stay out of trouble at the first turn. Firing Line, who ran second in the Derby, has the outside post position and can survey the situation, which is an advantage to jockey Gary Stevens.
But Danzig Moon trainer Mark Casse said he expects his horse to sit back early, then make a run late. Bodhisattva won the Federico Tesio Stakes a month ago at Pimlico with a strong stretch run. Tale of Verve trainer Dallas Stewart said his horse can finish well too, if he gets a good trip.
"It's a horse race," Stewart said. "Every race is different. You watch nine or 10 races, anything can happen. We don't wish that, we just know racing every day, you see things happen.
"American Pharoah, he's got the one hole so he's got to have a good trip, but he's the fastest horse in the race," Stewart said. "If a couple things happen, he gets in trouble or doesn't show up to run hard, you have a shot."