ANNAPOLIS -- Maryland's gubernatorial race remains deadlocked and many voters are taking an increasingly dim view of the two candidates, according to a poll released today.
Forty-six percent of those surveyed said they would vote for Democratic Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend and 45 percent supported Republican Rep. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr., according to the Mason-Dixon Maryland Poll conducted for the Journal newspapers and WRC-TV.
Both candidates, meanwhile, were viewed unfavorably by about a third of the voters surveyed Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Mason-Dixon questioned 625 people who say they regularly vote in state elections. The one-point difference between the two candidates was within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.
The poll, the first taken since the sniper attacks began in the Washington area, also showed almost two-thirds of Marylanders feel very anxious or somewhat anxious because of the shootings. Twenty-five percent said they have changed their daily routines.
But 84 percent said the killings would not affect how they will vote in the gubernatorial election Nov. 5.
Brad Coker, managing director of Washington-based Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc., said the race is a dead heat and likely to remain very close over the final three weeks of the campaign.
"It looks a lot like 1990," Coker said, referring to the gubernatorial election in which Gov. Parris Glendening defeated Republican Ellen Sauerbrey by fewer than 6,000 votes.
The poll represented a four-point swing in Townsend's favor from a poll taken last month that broke 46 percent to 43 percent in Ehrlich's favor. Both polls were within the margin of error.
"Townsend should be encouraged by the fact that she has boosted her margins in the state's traditional Democratic strongholds," Coker said.
The lieutenant governor also widened her lead in Prince George's and Montgomery counties and Baltimore City and improved her standing among black voters, Coker said.
Ehrlich holds leads in the rest of the state, ranging from 55 percent in Baltimore County to 60 percent in Western Maryland.
Coker said both candidates' negative ratings increased substantially over the past month.
Townsend was viewed unfavorably by 37 percent of voters surveyed, up from 27 percent in September. During that same period, Ehrlich's unfavorable rating increased from 13 percent to 35 percent.
"That's because both campaigns have gone negative," said Matthew Crenson, a professor of political science at Johns Hopkins University.
James Gimpel, professor of government and politics at the University of Maryland College Park, said it is normal for negative ratings to go up as election day approaches and voters begin to firm up in their minds their reasons for supporting a candidate.
"In the beginning, people have an inkling of who they want to vote for, but they don't have any kind of elaborate justification," Gimpel said. "As we move forward, the sides tend to become more polarized."
On the Net:
Mason-Dixon Polling and Research Inc.: www.mason-dixon.com/latest.cfm
Forty-six percent of those surveyed said they would vote for Democratic Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend and 45 percent supported Republican Rep. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr., according to the Mason-Dixon Maryland Poll conducted for the Journal newspapers and WRC-TV.
Both candidates, meanwhile, were viewed unfavorably by about a third of the voters surveyed Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Mason-Dixon questioned 625 people who say they regularly vote in state elections. The one-point difference between the two candidates was within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.
The poll, the first taken since the sniper attacks began in the Washington area, also showed almost two-thirds of Marylanders feel very anxious or somewhat anxious because of the shootings. Twenty-five percent said they have changed their daily routines.
But 84 percent said the killings would not affect how they will vote in the gubernatorial election Nov. 5.
Brad Coker, managing director of Washington-based Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc., said the race is a dead heat and likely to remain very close over the final three weeks of the campaign.
"It looks a lot like 1990," Coker said, referring to the gubernatorial election in which Gov. Parris Glendening defeated Republican Ellen Sauerbrey by fewer than 6,000 votes.
The poll represented a four-point swing in Townsend's favor from a poll taken last month that broke 46 percent to 43 percent in Ehrlich's favor. Both polls were within the margin of error.
"Townsend should be encouraged by the fact that she has boosted her margins in the state's traditional Democratic strongholds," Coker said.
The lieutenant governor also widened her lead in Prince George's and Montgomery counties and Baltimore City and improved her standing among black voters, Coker said.
Ehrlich holds leads in the rest of the state, ranging from 55 percent in Baltimore County to 60 percent in Western Maryland.
Coker said both candidates' negative ratings increased substantially over the past month.
Townsend was viewed unfavorably by 37 percent of voters surveyed, up from 27 percent in September. During that same period, Ehrlich's unfavorable rating increased from 13 percent to 35 percent.
"That's because both campaigns have gone negative," said Matthew Crenson, a professor of political science at Johns Hopkins University.
James Gimpel, professor of government and politics at the University of Maryland College Park, said it is normal for negative ratings to go up as election day approaches and voters begin to firm up in their minds their reasons for supporting a candidate.
"In the beginning, people have an inkling of who they want to vote for, but they don't have any kind of elaborate justification," Gimpel said. "As we move forward, the sides tend to become more polarized."
On the Net:
Mason-Dixon Polling and Research Inc.: www.mason-dixon.com/latest.cfm