In early 2007, Charley Casserly, after 18 seasons as an NFL general manager, returned to his draft studies. He consulted history, pored over stats and presented an unsurprising conclusion: The later the pick, the harder it is to stick.
In Casserly's 10-year study of round-by-round results, 75 percent of first-round selections became "successful" players, which he defined as starting within four years of being drafted. Second-rounders had a 50 percent chance of success. Third-rounders: 30 percent. Fourth-rounders: 25 percent. Seventh-rounders: 9 percent. It was an imperfect calculus of an imperfect science.
The Ravens enter Thursday's draft with seven of the top 135...
Michael Turner of the Atlanta Falcons carries the ball Monday night against the Denver Broncos.