30%: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "Veep" -- Hard to pick against a defending champion who somehow managed to up her game in the following season. But did I say comedy lead actor was a close race? There are two HBO thesps breathing down her neck …

26%: Lena Dunham, "Girls" -- The ultimate conversation piece, and as polarizing as she can be, no one can question her commitment.

24%: Laura Dern, "Enlightened" -- Won huge praise from the critics and scored a nom despite show's cancelation. Can't rule her out.

10%: Tina Fey, "30 Rock" -- Best bet among the farewell contenders, but her last Emmy win was 2008.

7%: Amy Poehler, "Parks and Recreation" -- Just seems destined to be underappreciated.

3%: Edie Falco, "Nurse Jackie" -- Like Alec Baldwin, she brings a big name and a long Emmy history, but hasn't won recently and there's no urgency to change that.

Supporting comedy actor
30%: Ty Burrell, "Modern Family" -- Burrell and Eric Stonestreet have alternated victories the past three years, and as much as you might hear some people voice "Modern Family" fatigue, you also hear Burrell cited as one of the biggest reasons to keep watching.

20%: Adam Driver, "Girls" -- We got to see different sides of Adam this year, along with a return to controversy. But in its past comedy supporting votes, the Academy has generally seemed to want to laugh more than gasp.

15%: Ed O'Neill, "Modern Family" -- Putting him slightly ahead of Ferguson but behind Burrell, because I'm not sure how popular last season's parenthood arc was.

14%: Jesse Tyler Ferguson, "Modern Family" -- It's questionable that the same electorate that sidelined 2012 winner Stonestreet from the nominations is likely to put Ferguson over the top.

11%: Tony Hale, "Veep" -- He's great at this part, but the quiet aspects of it, the fact that it is a background role by design (not that he doesn't make his presence known), makes you wonder if voters will be compelled to honor it.

10%: Bill Hader, "Saturday Night Live" -- If Kristen Wiig didn't win for "SNL," I'm not sure how Hader does.

Supporting comedy actress
20%: Mayim Bialik, "The Big Bang Theory" -- The arrival of "Big Bang" in the comedy series nominations coincided with the season Bialik became a series regular. She has only grown more lively on the show, and among the alternatives to two-time defending champ Julie Bowen, she might have theedge.

17%: Sofia Vergara, "Modern Family" -- This is one of those actresses for whom the Academy seems to think the nomination is enough. But if "Modern Family" retains its Emmy power, it's definitely Vergara's turn.

17%: Julie Bowen, "Modern Family" -- Very possible the Academy goes with "If it ain't broke, why fix it?"

13%: Jane Krakowski, "30 Rock" -- Krakowski, who has never won, is a plausible choice to be the Academy's means of saluting "30 Rock."

13%: Anna Chlumsky, "Veep" -- Made a stronger impression in season two. A good underdog bet in a seven-person category.

12%: Jane Lynch, "Glee": The last winner in the category not named Bowen, Lynch's candidacy is complicated by the bifurcated setting of "Glee."