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Bill Clinton

The GOP's four advantages

The GOP's four advantages

Our political system remains polarized and divided between the two major parties, but in our present era of division the Republicans benefit from what I call four interconnected and mutually-reinforcing "structural asymmetries." Allow me to unpack each. The first is the turnout asymmetry: Republican voters vote more reliably. Voter turnout in presidential years is higher than in midterm cycles or odd-year state and local elections. Although there is some dispute about whether and how much this pattern matters, the electorate tends to be older, whiter, more married, more affluent and thus more Republican in non-presidential years. According to the surge-and-decline theory,...