John Kasich

Does Trump have a chance to be a two-term president? Bigly.

Does Trump have a chance to be a two-term president? Bigly.

Donald Trump could become a two-term president. His path to re-election is not very hard to see.

Start with the fact that political math is not especially complex. In all but the most unusual presidential elections, there is little doubt about how 80 percent of the electorate will vote. Around 40 percent will vote for the Democrat, no matter whom he or she may be, and about 40 percent is sure to vote Republican. The more wobbly 20 percent is less predictable, although, in recent elections, most of those voters also ended up splitting fairly evenly between the parties. The tiny percentage of true swing voters in key states is the cohort that makes the decisive choice for one...

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