Best picture breakdown

Jake Gyllenhaal, right, stars in "Brokeback Mountain," which could end up competing against another of his films, "Jarhead," in the best picture race. (Kimberley French / Focus Features)

Sure, it's early in the season from an Academy Awards standpoint, but in Hollywood it's never too soon to start projecting possible contenders for the coveted title of best picture.

This year's race, for instance, could center on an old Oscar friend, like Steven Spielberg, who may get two chances to grab the gold. Or it might revolve around a reigning Hollywood hunk, in the form of George Clooney, or a next-generation hearththrob such as Jake Gyllenhaal.

There's even an 800-pound (and then some) gorilla lurking in the mist, one that could bring former Academy Award champ Peter Jackson back to the podium just two years after his hobbits enjoyed a record Oscar haul.

If there's an early consensus on contenders for the most hotly anticipated and closely watched of all Oscar categories, it's this: the 78th Annual Academy Awards are shaping up -- at least at this stage -- without any runaway leaders or clear-cut favorites.

The race figures to start with Spielberg, even though nobody's seen his film yet -- word is the director is still scrambling to complete the project before entry deadlines in early December.

The Olympic thriller "Munich" is being touted as Spielberg's most serious movie since "Schindler's List." As you may remember, that film was the only movie in modern times to win best picture from every major award group: the National Board of Review, the top three film critics groups (Los Angeles, New York and the National Society), Golden Globes, the leading guilds and the academy.

(Other movies have pulled off a clean sweep -- including "On the Waterfront" and "The Bridge on the River Kwai" -- but that was more than 40 years ago when there were far fewer awards.)

Can Spielberg pull off a similar feat this year? He'll certainly have his work cut out for him.

For one thing, "Munich" will surely be controversial, since it's about the hunt for Palestinian militants who killed 11 Israeli athletes at the 1972 Olympic Games.

That means it likely won't be popular with many Arab sympathizers -- or some Jewish ones either, since Spielberg plans to spotlight how Israeli leaders sanctioned the deaths of Palestinians not involved in the Munich showdown.

There's also the potential for low box office, because instead of casting a superstar lead, Spielberg cast a superhero, "The Hulk"'s Eric Bana. In case you're wondering, box office performance does matter to the academy.

If "Munich" falls short, Spielberg can still pick up a piece of best picture gold as a producer on "Memoirs of a Geisha." The film figures to have a special appeal to Oscar voters, who are notorious as fans of big costume epics based on popular books.

They've also shown they like movies directed by Rob Marshall, picking his adaptation of "Chicago" as best picture three years ago. Marshall missed out on the director's award that year when voters got caught up with Roman Polanski. Now they may feel it's time to catch up with Marshall by bowing to "Geisha."

Another name director who may be considered overdue for recognition by academy voters is Terrence Malick. His "Thin Red Line" was nominated in 1998, although voters previously snubbed his "Days of Heaven" and "Badlands" despite huzzahs from critics. They could be ready to embrace his latest.

Malick's "The New World" has epic appeal, and it feels important because it's about the British settlement of Jamestown in the 1600s, John Smith's historic clash with natives and his romp with Pocahontas.

But there's another savage best picture threat lurking in ancient wilderness, too: "King Kong." Don't assume that a popcorn fantasy can't get a grip on the best picture prize.

Director Peter Jackson's "The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King" reigns as the biggest undefeated champ in Oscar history, and many of its craftsmen provided the muscle behind "Kong."

True, Oscar voters don't usually nominate blockbusters for best picture these days, but they used to do it all time. Remember "Airport?" "The Towering Inferno?" "Jaws?" Maybe Jackson could usher in the "The Return of the King Kong."

Speaking of reigning award winners, a screen adaptation of the biggest champ in Tony history, "The Producers" (12 trophies) may compete for best picture just three years after "Chicago" proved that musicals are alive and high-kicking. ("The Producers" already carries an Oscar pedigree: the Broadway tuner was based upon a 1968 film that won Mel Brooks an Academy Award for best screenplay.)

What's so intriguing about the possibility of "The Producers" following in the footsteps (or is that dance steps?) of "Chicago" is that its story appeals to the same sinister side of Hollywood denizens.

Related topic galleries: Woody Allen, Sam Mendes, Reese Witherspoon, Kevin Costner, Heath Ledger, Eric Bana, Film Festivals

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